PORT STREET LUCIE — Some team was trying to sign Cody Bellinger. And Matt Chapman. And Blake Snell. The expectation all winter was that Dylan Cease would be traded before the regular season.
But did everything have to line up for the Mets with a National League team likely to be in the wild-card hunt?
Last year, Arizona and Miami entered the final two wild-card spots in the National League with 84 wins, and the Cubs (83 wins), Padres, and Reds (82 wins) fell short.
Similar to 2023, the National League is expected to have two good teams: the Braves and Dodgers. I think the Phillies are right behind them, and then the Diamondbacks. But the projection system is roaring beneath the dynamic duo. So this ecosystem is sensitive enough to change with the Giants adding Chapman and Snell late, the Cubs keeping Bellinger, and the Padres acquiring Seeds.
According to Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota System, as of Tuesday, the Diamondbacks are the No. 1 wild card with 85.0 wins, followed by the Phillies with 84.3 wins, the Giants with 83.4 wins, the Mets with 82.6 wins, and the Cubs with 81.6 wins (the Cardinals have 85.0 wins).・League Central Division champion) and the Padres are expected. At 81.0. FanGraphs has the Phillies at 85.0, the Diamondbacks at 83.6, the Giants at 83.2, the Padres at 82.6, the Cubs at 82.2, the Marlins at 80.7 and the Mets at 80.4.
Next, take out a large piece of salt. At this time last season, the Mets, Cardinals, and Padres were the favorites to make the playoffs, but they were among the most disappointing teams.
But the idea here is to look at this as a snapshot, an indicator of where the league is headed. My guess is that the Mets’ internal projection system sees the league the same way. Because Steve Cohen said this over the weekend. ”
Cohen also said his goal is to make the playoffs, and when asked if he would expand his salary to do so, he said, “My job is to support.” [president of baseball operations] david [Stearns]” and said he would look “opportunistic.” He was asked about what he would do before the trade deadline. But opportunities continue to exist.
Bellinger, Chapman, Snell and Cease are all clients of Scott Boras, as are free agents J.D. Martinez and Jordan Montgomery. When they brought up the subject of Montgomery early in spring training, they felt the Mets had a price to jump on if there was a big drop, but they believed another club would jump before that. But that was before Chapman and Snell’s prices dropped precipitously following Bellinger’s, especially in terms of years.
Nevertheless, on the flip side, there was also industry sentiment that Montgomery did not want to land in New York, although neither he nor Boras have indicated that publicly. Also, this may be a March delusion, but the Mets feel like their pitching depth is better today than they were at the start of camp, even though they lost Kodai Chiga for at least a month.
That’s why Martinez might be more likely. The Mets recently acquired another JD in Davis to ensure depth and a hedge at third base in case Brett Batty and Mark Vientos fail at third base. However, more consistent playing time pushed him up to the A level. The Mets won’t commit to significantly reducing Batty/Vientos’ playing time if their priority is learning about young players to better prepare them for the future.
Signing Martinez would mean significantly cutting back on Vientos’ at-bats, perhaps even sending him back to Triple-A. The only reason to sign Martinez would be to make him the DH and Pete Alonso’s primary protection. The Mets are concerned internally that Martinez’s pursuit rate, swing rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate increased and his walk rate decreased during his age-35 season, a sign that he was falling off a cliff. Is it? On the contrary, although he swung and whiffed a lot during his prime, he continued to hit the ball hard and increase his productivity (33 home runs, 103 RBIs in 113 games) for the 2023 Dodgers, just as he did in his prime.
The Mets still think having Batty and Vientos in regular at-bats could seriously jeopardize their playoff bid, so they might as well give it a try. But there’s also an economic element. For example, if Martinez cost the same $10 million as last season, the Mets would end up paying an additional $11 million in taxes, which would cost them $21 million in 2024 alone.
So far, Cohen has been happy to use his privilege when asked by the front office. But baseball operations have so far stuck to price and principles for 2024 priorities. But in recent weeks, several teams likely to join the Mets in the wild-card hunt may be inching toward a better chance at the postseason.
Will that motivate the Mets to try to fight back in this moment, or will they continue to see how the season plays out before making any action?
