College Football Playoff rankings always seem to set off arguments, and this season should be no different. Someone will feel hard done by when the field is announced. That’s probably unavoidable, especially in a year when the balance of power seems to shift almost every week. The nation’s top-ranked team, Miami, faces Notre Dame tonight.
Miami is 8-0 and has cleared every hurdle so far, though this may be its toughest test yet. Quarterback Darian Mensah has been excellent, throwing for 2,425 yards and 25 touchdowns with just one interception. But Malachi Toney, who has caught 13 of those touchdowns, is out with an ankle injury and will have surgery. Miami will need someone else to make a major contribution.
It’s fair to question Notre Dame’s schedule, so Miami deserves the same scrutiny. The Irish are the only ranked opponent on the Hurricanes’ schedule so far, and this will be Miami’s first game against a ranked team. The Hurricanes have beaten Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest, Central Michigan, Clemson, Florida State, Pittsburgh and North Carolina. Wake Forest has turned out to be a strong team, though it wasn’t ranked when Miami played it. Miami also narrowly escaped Florida State in a controversial double-overtime finish.
Notre Dame can be a frustrating team to assess. It competes as an independent, yet is often regarded as a national powerhouse. I haven’t always been convinced by the Irish, who can build up wins against weaker opponents. They enter this game at 7-1, with their loss coming against BYU two games ago. The result was debated, but it still counts as a loss.
The Irish have also beaten Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford and Navy, winning each game by at least two scores. CJ Carr has had a strong season, throwing 18 touchdown passes and distributing the ball to different targets. Still, it’s difficult to know quite how good he is when the schedule hasn’t offered much resistance.
This matchup looked like one of the season’s biggest games a few weeks ago. Toney’s absence is a break for Notre Dame, though playing Miami will be difficult even at home. I do think the point spread is too large. I’d take Miami plus 7.5. The line seems to give Notre Dame too much credit, while perhaps overstating how much Toney’s absence will hurt the Hurricanes.
