Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party lost its majority in parliament, dealing an unexpected blow to the prime minister and forcing him to negotiate with coalition partners to return to power.
All the votes were counted early on Wednesday, revealing that the landslide BJP victory predicted in opinion polls had not materialised and instead a widespread backlash across the country against an authoritarian prime minister and his Hindu nationalist politics.
The party lost 62 seats, leaving it with a total of 240, below the 272 needed for a parliamentary majority.
It is the first time since Mr. Modi was elected in 2014 that the BJP has failed to win a majority on its own. But together with its political alliance known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the BJP will win around 292 seats, enough to form a majority government for the next five years and return Mr. Modi to a third term.
Meanwhile, the opposition alliance known as INDIA fared much better than expected, winning a combined total of more than 230 seats. The coalition, made up of more than 20 national and regional opposition parties, came together for the first time in this election with the goal of defeating Prime Minister Modi.
Despite the close race, Modi used his victory speech to insist he had won the mandate to lead the party again. “I am very, very happy today,” he said, addressing voters at the BJP headquarters in Delhi.
“I would like to bow before the nation,” Modi said. “Today is a personally emotional moment for me as this is my first election since I lost my mother.”
“Receiving people’s congratulations for the third time after a decade has boosted our morale and given us new strength. Though our opponents were united, they could not even come close to the number of seats won by the BJP,” he said.
Senior BJP leaders insisted they would form the next government, denied any setbacks and highlighted that the party had won more seats than any other party.
“The NDA will form the government for the third time. Prime Minister Modi will take oath of office for the third time. The National Conference will be in opposition for the third time,” BJP spokesman Jaybir Shergill said, adding that there would be “reflection” within the parties over the defeat.
The Indian Union persevered and succeeded more than many analysts had expected, despite government agencies freezing the party’s funds and imprisoning opposition leaders ahead of the elections, particularly with the support of regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, which fared much better than the BJP.
“You have to give the opposition coalition a credit for demonstrating more political and electoral savvy than previously thought,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.
“Many people considered the opposition dead and did not believe it could exploit the BJP’s weaknesses, such as the economic crisis of the past few years and the backlash against Hindu nationalism. But the opposition has fared rather well.”
Analysts said the outcome would have significant ramifications for India’s post-election political landscape. Since his election a decade ago, Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have enjoyed strong support, but the opposition has been seen as weak and unable to match his party’s power. Modi is seen as a popular strongman and has been accused of overseeing increased authoritarianism and a crackdown on dissent during his decade in office.
“Voters, especially in Hindi-speaking areas which are the BJP’s core base, did not generate the expected wave of support for Modi. Hence, this can be interpreted as a defeat for the BJP compared to expectations,” said Maya Tudor, associate professor at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University.
The result was a particular victory for India’s beleaguered main opposition party and the BJP’s chief rival, the Indian National Congress, which had suffered dramatic defeats at the hands of Mr. Modi in the past two elections and had cast doubt on its future as a political party. This time, the party looks set to more than double its number of seats.
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Indian National Congress party leader Mallikarjun Kharge said Modi faces a “moral and political defeat” and said the opposition alliance would meet on Wednesday to discuss the way forward. “We focused on fighting the unemployed, farmers and poor of the country. Meanwhile the Bharatiya Janata Party spread lies and hatred and ran a malicious election campaign. The people have rejected it,” Kharge said.
Mamata Banerjee, leader of the opposition Trinamool Congress party, which swept all seats in West Bengal state, called on Prime Minister Modi to step down. “The results show that Prime Minister Modi has lost all credibility. He should resign immediately,” she said.
The BJP made the cult of the prime minister central to its election campaign, with the party’s manifesto simply titled “Modi’s Assurance.” Initially, many of the prime minister’s speeches focused on the BJP’s huge infrastructure push, generous welfare programs, India’s rise to the international stage over the past decade, and his promise to turn the country into a $10 trillion economy.
But what was perceived as a sign of tension within the BJP camp was short-lived, as Modi later turned to more divisive religious rhetoric during the election campaign, calling Muslims “infiltrators” and “prolific fathers” and declaring his role as God’s chosen one in a series of interviews. The BJP has also been accused of using harassment and intimidation to block opponents from running, and of suppressing the Muslim vote.
Analysts said the results showed the “Modi wave” had been hit by problems such as high unemployment and inflation. After the election, Modi will have to contend with a stronger and more vigorous opposition than at any point in the past decade.
It could also hinder the BJP’s ability to continue its more hardline Hindu nationalist policies, as it would have to rely on coalition partners that don’t have a Hindu nationalist platform, potentially forcing Modi to adopt a more pragmatic, consensus-based approach, analysts say.
One of the biggest shocks from the election results was the BJP’s heavy defeat in the Hindi-speaking heartland of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous and politically important state, which has 80 seats and is seen as a beacon for the whole of India. Early tallies showed the Indian coalition ahead of the BJP coalition, with several of its top candidates losing seats, indicating the party has lost a crucial support in one of its key strongholds.
The election results also contained other surprises. One of the big wins for the BJP was that it won its first seats in Kerala, a state that has long been a stronghold of Left politics and strongly opposed Hindu nationalist politics, while Modi’s own constituency of Varanasi saw his margin of victory narrow from 500,000 to 150,000.
