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More Migration, Less ‘Tough’ Border Policy

Kamala Harris and her media allies promise 'tough' border security policies, but her new economic plan makes clear she supports looser border policies to let in more immigrants .

Friday's new york times heading I declare “Harris is heading to the border to take a tough stance on Trump.” many Other media outlets are making claims about the promised “tough” policies.

But three days earlier, Harris announced an economic plan that envisions a gradual influx of low-wage immigrant workers, federally assisted immigrant consumers and room-sharing immigrant renters at the border. The policy would be a continuation of President Joe Biden's “Bidenomics” policies that fundamentally transformed the nation's economy from an alliance of young Americans to older investors, employers and immigrants.

of 82 page plan It was scrubbed to remove any mention of immigrants or immigrants. But the article touts economic forecasts for allies that expect her high immigration rates to continue, and includes a footnote indicating that undocumented immigrants will be welcomed into government institutions.

The Harris Plan boasts on page 6 that “Experts find Vice President Harris' new advances are better for Americans and the economy,” touting a report by Goldman Sachs that says: are.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Vice President Harris' victory would be the biggest boost to the U.S. economy. They estimate that job growth will be higher and inflation will be lower than if Donald Trump were elected. A Harris victory would result in 10,000 to 30,000 more new jobs per month than if Trump were elected.

But Goldman Sachs says those extra jobs will be filled by immigrants rather than higher-paid Americans. forecast.

Goldman's forecast states, “If Vice President Harris is elected, we estimate that immigrants will contribute approximately 30,000 more immigrants per month to the labor force than in the Republican landslide scenario.” added.

If Harris wins, net immigration is expected to continue. [at] 1.5 minutes [million] for the year, slightly above the pre-pandemic trend of 1 million [legal immigrants]. If Mr. Trump wins under a divided government, net immigration is expected to fall to 1.25 million. A Republican victory would allow Congress to increase enforcement resources and net immigration is expected to fall to 750,000.

Harris' plan also cited an August forecast from Mark Zandi, a pro-Democratic Wall Street analyst at Moody's Analytics, who said: Households will have more disposable income than they did under President Trump. ”

but Zandi's prediction It assumes the continuation of the multinational economic policy established by Mr. Mayorkas, stating:

We also expect Harris to propose reforms largely similar to the immigration bill that President Biden introduced to Congress at the beginning of his term. The bill includes a pathway for more undocumented immigrants and individuals protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy to apply for and obtain legal status. citizenship.

If the 2021 Biden bill becomes law, it would bring millions of white-collar and blue-collar immigrants into the economy. This demographic shock would have suppressed wages, lowered productivity, spiked inflation, and boosted returns for investors in consumer retail and real estate.

Moody's forecast acknowledges that Donald Trump's pledge to curb immigration will raise Americans' wages.

President Trump's proposed immigration enforcement measures, including stricter immigration policies and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, will disrupt already strained industries, especially those in which immigrant workers thrive, such as agriculture, construction, leisure and hospitality, and retail. rapidly causing a significant tightening of the job market. more prevalent (see Figure 5). of [Mayorkas] Although the post-pandemic surge in migrants crossing the southern border has posed many challenges for communities across the country as reopenings have occurred (see Figure 6), the benefits have been significant. Help increase labor supply and ease wage and price pressures. This averted further aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a recession. Reversing these immigration flows, as Mr. Trump is proposing, would have the following immediate consequences: Tight job market, increasing wage and price pressures Industries with large numbers of immigrants have been hit the hardest (see Exhibit 7).

Harris' 82-page plan also includes a number of spending and regulatory programs to offset the foreseeable financial damage caused by an investor-backed economic strategy of mass immigration.

For example, it proposes raising the minimum wage and giving federal loans to Americans and immigrants who can't afford to buy a home as the housing market swells with the arrival of 10 million immigrants starting in 2021. This big government complements mass immigration. This would be a boon for many progressives who are employed or looking for jobs in federal agencies or government-funded nonprofits.

The plan mentions just two proposals to improve productivity in the workplace so that ordinary Americans can get paid more for doing more work each day. It proposes increasing childcare subsidies for mothers and increasing taxes on “stock buybacks to encourage companies to invest in growth and productivity.” But the plan quietly ignores rival strategies to increase workplace productivity by reducing immigrant populations.

The fine print of Harris' plan also abandons important distinctions between Americans and illegal immigrants.

For example, footnote 103 is dated September 19, 2024.fact sheet Titled “The President'' from the White House. Biden and Vice President Harris are committed to Latinos. community. ” The document states that Mr. Biden “Proposes rules to expand TRIO's college access program to Dreamers Additionally, an estimated 50,000 more students each year will have access to federal college preparation services and programs, such as counseling and tutoring, and thousands more will be able to attend college. ”

On page 60, the Harris plan promises an increase in “workforce hubs” that will help train workers to get jobs.

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