The ongoing conflict with Iran holds significant implications for the future of the West and President Donald Trump’s legacy. While the U.S. appears to be gaining ground, the outcome remains uncertain. If Trump stays committed, it’s likely the U.S. won’t falter, but retreating could lead to a catastrophic foreign policy mistake, akin to the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
Given these divergent futures, Trump seems inclined to persist in this fight, and perhaps he should.
Iran presents a unique security threat.
This nation is governed by extremist ideologies, which significantly complicate interactions with it. The Iranian regime, along with the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), argues that unlike other tyrannical governments, they cannot be deterred in a conventional sense.
China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin can be challenged, as neither seems intent on total destruction. However, Iran’s leadership is driven by a mission to eliminate Israel and the U.S. For many involved in this regime, martyrdom is more important than mere survival—a belief stemming from their extreme interpretation of the “Twelve” theology.
According to this belief, the twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, did not die but is hidden and will return to bring justice. Some Twelver sects even suggest that current turmoil could herald his return.
When Iran’s first leader, Khomeini, accepted a cease-fire with Iraq in 1988, he wasn’t concerned about a backlash from his citizens. He viewed the Islamic Republic as a vehicle for global salvation.
Today, however, the current chief of the IRGC, Ahmed Vahidi, is painfully aware that his regime’s days are numbered. With a devastated economy marked by hyperinflation, the government can no longer support its population of over 90 million. The conditions suggest an impending revolt against the regime.
Vahidi’s predecessor, Khamenei, opted for severe repression in January during widespread protests, reminiscent of China’s Tiananmen Square in 1989. Like Deng Xiaoping back then, Khamenei chose to crush potential uprisings.
This brutal tactic worked in both regions, but history shows that regimes propped up by secret police can’t withstand tens of millions rallying for change without extensive surveillance—something Iran lacks.
Vahidi recognizes that his weakened administration won’t last long. Thus, the religious mission of the Twelve Theologies gains priority over mere regime survival. If survival is unattainable, then a more violent approach may be pursued to achieve their end goal of annihilating Israel and setting the stage for the Imam’s return.
Consequently, Vahidi and his associates are unlikely to agree to any deals that might hinder their pursuit of weapons capable of carrying out their agenda. This moment may be Iran’s last opportunity to develop offensive nuclear capabilities, as existing military responses might slow them down but won’t entirely dismantle their facilities.
These challenges present a complex scenario for President Trump. It’s a government governed by fervent ideology with access to potentially rich oil revenues should sanctions ease, all while planning deep underground for nuclear development.
Both Gulf Wars are examples of plans that faltered due to hesitations mid-operation, demonstrating how strategic indecision can lead to defeat. Such discussions often remind one of military wisdom that emphasizes urgency: “When you start taking Vienna, take Vienna.” This saying underscores the importance of ensuring thorough execution of military objectives.
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Critics point out that President Trump dislikes comparisons to former President Obama. Currently, he faces criticism from both sides of the aisle for escalating tensions with Iran. Though some insist Obama wouldn’t have approached the situation similarly, Trump should maintain his trajectory for the nation’s sake.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio has remarked on the Iranian leadership’s fanaticism, describing it as “crazy.” Trump has referred to them as “scum.” Regardless of perspectives on such leaders, there exists a firm belief in an apocalyptic theology that boasts of willingness to use nuclear arms against Israel in hopes of inducing the Imam’s return. Most Western countries are wary of dealing with a theocratic regime wielding such destructive power. Nonetheless, Trump appears determined to confront this challenge head-on, and now he must see it through.
