Nate Silver wrote on Wednesday that “my gut feeling” is that former President Donald Trump will win the election, and warned against trusting “anyone's gut feeling.”
Silver, who is also a statistician, author and poker player, said elections remain a “50-50” coin toss, a characterization that many political experts maintain is true, but voting day There are only 13 days left.
WATCH — CNN's Enten: Trump is doing much better with independents than he was in 2020:
newsweek reported About the history of Mr. Silver's election predictions:
- 2008: Nate Silver successfully predicted the winner of 49 out of 50 states in the presidential election.
- 2012: He accurately predicted the winners of all 50 states.
- 2016: Donald Trump won in an upset, but Silver's model gave him the highest probability of victory compared to most other forecasters who largely ruled out Trump's chances. (approximately 30%).
- 2020: Silver's model favored Joe Biden and matched the final results, but underestimated Trump's performance in certain states such as Florida.
in new york times editorial, silver guessed Trump will likely win, in part because of what pollsters call nonresponse bias. Nonresponse bias refers to the inability of pollsters to reach enough Trump supporters.
Silver also suggested, without evidence, that Trump would win because he believes many voters are misogynists. 54% of the population say A recent YouGov poll found that only 30% of people said they were ready for a female president.
WATCH — Biden says Trump needs to be restrained, tries to backtrack:
sea span
Mr. Silver explained the reason as follows.
Nonresponse bias can be a difficult problem to resolve. Even the best telephone polls have single-digit response rates, and in some ways the people who choose to respond to polls are an anomaly. Trump supporters often have lower levels of civic engagement and social trust, so they may be less likely to respond to news media surveys. Polling organizations are using increasingly aggressive data-massage techniques, such as rating people by educational background (voters with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys) and how people have voted in the past. I'm trying to fix this problem by using There is no guarantee that any of these will work.
If Trump were topping the polls, there would be at least one sign of that. That means Democrats no longer have a consistent advantage as a political party — about the same number of people now identify as Republicans.
There's also the fact that Harris is running to become the first female president and the second black president. The so-called Bradley Effect — named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who trailed in the polls in the 1982 California gubernatorial race, suggests that voters are more likely to think that they are lost than to admit that they will not vote for a black person. It is thought that there is a tendency to say that Candidate Barack Obama didn't matter in 2008 or 2012. Still, only once else has a woman been the party's nominee, and undecided voters largely opposed her. So perhaps Harris is concerned about the “Hillary effect.”
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former RNC war room analyst. he is the author of politics of slave morality. Follow Wendell “×” @WendellHusebø or society of truth @WendellHusebo.
