Heading into the 2024 presidential election, the United States is split along party lines, making the electorate one of the most evenly divided in the past 20 years, a resurfacing study shows.
The Pew Research Center analysis looked at voter identification across different ages, races, religions, and education levels and compared how voters identified in 1996 with new data from 2023.
In 1994, 51 percent of Americans said they supported the Republican Party, while 47 percent said they supported the Democratic Party. The tables have turned in recent years, with 5% of American voters identifying more as Democrats than Republicans in 2020. However, the 2023 Pew survey results reveal a significant shift in party affiliation this cycle, with 49% of voters reporting that they identify as Democratic or leaning Democratic. While they identify as Democrats, 48% identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning.
Additionally, approximately 33% of respondents said they would identify as conservative or moderate in 2023. Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, only 23% identify as liberal Democrats or liberal-leaning.
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Polls show that while Democrats remain the party of first choice for most Hispanic, black and Asian voters, party support among non-Hispanic white Democratic voters has declined by 21 points since 1996. , fell from 77% to 56% in 2023.
Recent polls have found support for Democrats is shrinking among minority voters, despite their advantage. A recent Gallup poll found that 19% of black adults identify themselves as Republican or lean toward the Republican Party, while 66% identify as a Democrat or Democratic-leaning. “This is the lowest number in the world.”
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Among various age groups, Democrats maintain an advantage among younger voters, but the majority of older voters are Republican.
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The Republican Party has gained support among Hispanic voters in recent years, tripling its support among the demographic from 3% to 9% over the past two decades.
Rural voters also appear to be shifting toward Republicans, and while voters were evenly split between the two parties in 2008, this poll shows Republicans leading Democrats by 25 points, 60% to 35%. It was shown that
President Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to face each other in a rematch of the presidential election in November. Although Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 election, Pew’s analysis reveals potential changes in the political landscape that could be reflected in the results this fall.
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Pew Research Center conducted surveys by phone for results from 1994 to 2018 and online surveys of registered voters from 2019 to 2023.
