This year, New Jersey saw an increase of nearly 31,000 registered Republicans, while the number of registered Democrats fell by over 11,000, according to recent statistics.
Despite these shifts, Democrats still hold a significant lead in the state. There are currently 2,525,346 registered Democrats, compared to 1,670,297 Republicans and 2,340,583 independent voters.
Residents had until October 14 to register for the highly anticipated gubernatorial election, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces off against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
“New Jersey voters have endured 25 years of Democratic leadership in Congress and eight years with Phil Murphy. Mikie Sherrill will likely be more of the same, but perhaps even worse,” stated Chris Russell, Ciattarelli’s campaign strategist, regarding the recent voter registration data.
In a notable twist, this year Republicans surpassed Democrats with an additional 42,072 registered voters.
Russell further remarked, “Our state suffers from underfunding and overdevelopment, while far-left policies are harming the safety of our schools and communities. It’s time for a change, and Jack Ciattarelli represents that change.”
During the first two weeks of October, Republican registrations rose by 2,250, in contrast to the 1,478 additional Democrats, while about 13,062 residents became independent voters.
Mail-in ballot participation among Republican voters has also increased, reflecting a growing enthusiasm for Ciattarelli.
Republicans had a return rate of 48.43% for mail-in ballots, slightly higher than the 47.93% for Democrats. However, the overall number of returned votes still favors Democrats with 165,692 compared to Republicans, according to Michael Prusser, director of data science at DecisionDeskHQ.
Prusser noted, “On the first day of early voting, Democrats had a narrow lead as they won by 1.2%, with 1,644 more votes than Republicans.”
Mail-in ballot submissions in New Jersey are set to close on October 22. With just over 7,000 more raw votes, Democrats have extended their turnout advantage, narrowing the Republican return gap by 10 basis points.
“If you think Ciattarelli has captured voter enthusiasm, the Republicans will need to show compelling wins—not just victories on opening day,” someone commented.
Historically, mail-in voting has seen lower turnout among Republicans compared to Democrats, but shifts have been noted since last November when President Trump won against Kamala Harris.
The latest polling from RealClearPolitics indicates that Sherrill has a lead over Ciattarelli by 4.1 percentage points.
In the 2021 gubernatorial election, Democratic incumbent Murphy defeated Ciattarelli by a narrow margin of 3.2 points—this was almost 5 points closer than the final RCP average for that race.
Election day is set for November 4th.
