A new poll shows Maryland's Senate race is deadlocked as Republicans seek to retake long-held Democratic seats in the overwhelmingly Democratic state, a crucial election that could determine whether Republicans reclaim the Senate majority.
The race's Republican candidate, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan, and Democratic candidate Prince George's County Mayor Angela Alsobrooks, both have 46% support among Maryland voters, according to an AARP poll released Tuesday.
The survey, conducted between August 14 and 20, found that 7% were undecided.
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Former two-term governor of Maryland Larry Hogan celebrates his victory in the 2024 Maryland Republican Senate Primary on May 14, 2024, in Annapolis, Maryland. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)
The poll marks the first time the two races have been tied since Maryland's May primary. Previous surveys had suggested Alsobrooks had the lead. The winner of November's election will succeed Sen. Ben Cardin, a Democrat who is retiring this year after serving nearly two decades as a senator and almost 60 as a state and federal representative.
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Hogan and Alsobrooks are tied, but polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a large lead over former President Trump in Maryland, where she leads Trump by 30 points in multicandidate races and 32 points in head-to-head contests, according to the poll.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Maryland Democratic Senate candidate and Prince George's County Mayor Angela Alsobrooks, and Vice President Kamala Harris stand on stage together after speaking at a Gun Violence Awareness Day campaign event at the Kentland Community Center on June 7, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. (Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)
“Hogan leads Trump by 32 points,” the poll's release emphasized. “As expected, Hogan outperforms Trump in every major demographic.”
Democrats control the Senate by a slim 51-49 margin, giving Republicans an advantageous position this year, with Democrats set to defend 23 of the 34 seats at stake.
One of those seats is in heavily Republican West Virginia, a state that Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020. Republicans are all but certain to retake the seat because moderate Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin (a former governor) is not seeking reelection.
Republicans are also aiming to retake Ohio and Montana, congressional seats that Trump handily won four years ago, and five more Democratic seats up for grabs this year are in key battleground states.
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Democrats are trying to protect their fragile Senate majority, and Mr. Hogan's late entry into the race in February created an unexpected headache in a state previously considered a safe zone. Mr. Hogan leaves office in early 2023 with very high approval ratings and favorable ratings.
The poll highlights that “Despite a large Democratic registration advantage in Maryland, Hogan won independents by 23 points and a quarter of Democrats, tightening the race.”
Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump answered a question at a campaign event in Howell, Michigan on August 21, 2024. (Nick Antaya/Getty Images)
Hogan has been a vocal Republican critic of Trump and has hinted but then abandoned a 2024 presidential bid. He has repeatedly said he will not vote for Trump in November and in the spring he publicly called for respecting Trump's criminal conviction, setting himself apart from many other Republicans.
Asked about Trump coming out on top of the Republican field, Hogan said in an interview with Fox News Digital earlier this year, “He lost my state by 33 points, so that's a tough hurdle to overcome… It's not going to help me, but I think the challenge is surmountable.”
AARP Poll The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team, Fabrizio Ward (Republican) and Impact Research (Democrat), who interviewed 1,258 Maryland voters.
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