Republicans might see their chances of winning the California governor’s seat vanish with a potential shutout in the upcoming primary, based on a new poll.
As reported by Emerson College, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, currently leads with an approval rating of 28%. Following him is Democratic climate activist Tom Steyer at 22%, while Republican Steve Hilton, who has Trump’s backing, comes in third with 21%. If these standings persist, Republicans won’t make it to the November ballot, since the top two candidates, regardless of their party, will advance to the general election.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another key Republican candidate, trails significantly in fifth place with only 12% support. Other candidates have low single-digit ratings, including the infamous former Democratic congresswoman Katie Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, both at 5%, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 2%. Additionally, around 5% of respondents remain undecided.
Recent polling mirrors that of late 2025 and early 2026. Earlier surveys highlighted Hilton and Bianco as leading contenders, which gave some ambitious Republicans hope that California’s unusual primary system might allow for two Republican candidates in the general election due to a divided Democratic field.
“This poll should serve as a wake-up call for all Republicans in California. The threat from Democrats is no longer just a concern; it’s real,” said Hector Barajas, spokesperson for Steve Hilton.
Becerra and Steyer’s campaigns didn’t respond immediately to requests for comment.
Barajas also emphasized the need for Republicans to unite to give Californians a genuine choice in November and end 16 years of one-party governance. He insisted this movement transcends individual candidates, aiming to amplify the voices of working people against how the political system has rendered California costly and unsafe.
An Emerson College poll conducted in May indicated that Hilton and Bianco have particularly loyal supporters, with 88% of their backers claiming they “definitely support” them, a steady sentiment from Tuesday. In comparison, 76% of Becerra’s voters and 74% of Steyer’s conveyed similar confidence. The poll noted that less than half, about 48%, of Porter’s supporters showed certainty in continuing to back her.
Porter, who was once viewed as a frontrunner, saw her approval ratings decline after allegations surfaced regarding her treatment of staff and her ex-husband.
In the 2025 Emerson poll, Becerra and Steyer were at just 4% support, while Bianco led with 13%. At that time, Hilton was in a tight race for second place, tied with then-Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell at 12%, and Porter following closely at 11%.
Significantly, Trump endorsed Hilton after Swalwell faced allegations forcing him to resign from the gubernatorial race, which cleared the path for a quick rise in Becerra and Steyer’s standings.
After Swalwell’s abrupt exit, the California Democratic Party adjusted its strategy, focusing on gathering support for the June primary instead of uniting behind one candidate. Reports indicated that California’s term-limited Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom acknowledged the situation by highlighting the informed public’s observation of the unfolding political dynamics.
The outgoing governor has yet to endorse a successor and mentioned he has no immediate plans in that regard.
Back in December 2025, Hilton expressed skepticism about the Republican ideal scenario; he remarked at the time that he believed there was “zero chance” the Republicans would sweep the general election.
Emerson College’s survey interviewed 1,000 likely voters during California’s all-party primary between May 27th and 28th, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points and taking into account various demographic factors.
