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Next 20 Years Not ‘Hunky Dory’, Public Needs to Prepare to Survive

NATO forces are now better prepared for war than they were a year ago, but society as a whole has not yet recognized the need, and if the public is to “survive the first 36 hours” radio “And that's great,'' said the Confederate military commander.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) highest-ranking military official said that while the Ukraine war has stalled for both sides, concerns about Russia's ability to restore force have increased the likelihood of conflict between Russia and the alliance itself. He said he is doing so. A proxy incident like the one in Ukraine would be a “whole-of-society event” for which Western countries are not yet prepared. Speaking to reporters at NATO headquarters in Belgium, Rob Bauer, Dutch admiral and chairman of the Alliance's military committee, said war should not be seen as an event in the distant future, but rather a prediction that the general public should prepare for now. It painted a dark picture of an impossible future. Only professional military personnel are affected.

Asked about Western preparations for a Russian invasion, Admiral Bauer said that NATO forces have emerged fairly recently and that NATO as a defense organization exists to prepare for a Russian invasion. But times are changing and the public needs to be prepared too. He said: “The big difference from a year ago is that a lot has happened in the military and defense organizations. In our society, we need more than just the military to be able to operate in conflicts and wars. There is a lack of understanding that society as a whole is going to be involved, whether we like it or not.”

A visibly upset Mr Baurer responded to a journalist who accused military leaders of trying to scare the public with their announcements. Swedish general speaks to the nation The idea that war was approaching and that we needed to prepare for it led to “panic buying'' of emergency supplies. Bauer said it would be “great” if people were “surprised” to suddenly find themselves participating in a society-wide effort to repel Russian aggression. .

The admiral said in response to a question that the shock could prompt people to prepare more. In his likely address to the nation, he said: “The public needs to understand that they have a role to play. Society is part of the solution…To ensure survival for the first 36 hours, water, a radio with batteries, You need a flashlight. Those are simple things, but it starts there.”

“I'm not saying everything will go wrong tomorrow, but we have to recognize that peace cannot be taken for granted,'' the NATO military chief said, adding that broader social awareness is needed, including: He said that. “Not everything can be planned, and not everything will work out for the next 20 years.”

Nevertheless, he said, that is why NATO exists and why it plans and prepares to protect its members without seeking conflict.

When it comes to the changes he said are needed, he said there needs to be a major shift in thinking from long-held assumptions. The Admiral said:

…We, as a society, need to understand that war and combat are not just for the military. When it comes to wars like the one we are seeing in Ukraine, people need to understand that it is a society-wide event. For decades, we had the idea that we had a professional military and that they would solve the security problems we had in Afghanistan and Iraq. But when we talk about the right of collective self-defense, it is a society-wide affair.

The current military is not enough. Maintaining the military from a manpower perspective requires more people from society. To produce new tanks, new ships, new aircraft, new artillery, industry needs to have enough ammunition…The big difference from a year ago is that a lot is happening in the military and defense organizations. That's what happened. What has not occurred in our society is the understanding that it is more than the military that needs to be able to operate in conflicts and wars. Whether we like it or not, society as a whole will be involved.

These warnings after two turbulent decades come even though Russia has failed, in Bauer's words, to achieve “none of its strategic goals” in Ukraine. Both countries are in a “stationary stage” and Russia will struggle next year to find suitable “quality” personnel to replace the better-trained veterans it has already lost in the war.

“I don't think we should expect miracles to happen on either side… It's going to be difficult. We need to continue to support Ukraine, that's the most important thing we all need to realize. That's true,” Bauer said.

But the admiral and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command, who was also present at the meeting, agree that Russia has deeper regenerative capabilities than expected. General Cavoly said Russia would “spare every effort to rebuild” and “spend a huge portion of the budget on the military in the coming years.”

Although the sanctions regime has affected Russia's ability to produce “more modern equipment,” Bauler said Russia is “actually doing pretty well” in terms of producing artillery and replacing “older tanks.” The Admiral admitted. This is no small thing, the admiral said, paraphrasing former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin's words about Russia's ability to mass-produce artillery and tanks. ”

Bauer's comments about the need for a change in social attitudes follow others he made earlier this week, as European military thinkers talk about the end of an era of peace in Europe as the Ukraine war rages on. He's definitely not the only one. As reported this week, he said: As a result, we face the most dangerous world in decades.'' We need to understand that we are entering an era in which we must anticipate unexpected situations. To be fully effective, you need to focus on effectiveness. ”

Admiral Bauer spoke of a difficult 20 years, but exactly how long the West has left before Russia regains enough military power to pose a credible threat to NATO outside Ukraine. Discussions are taking place (assuming Moscow is willing to take such a risk). The British Defense Secretary gave a landmark speech on Monday, predicting a chaotic world with the possibility of simultaneous conflicts with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea within five years.

Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said Europe was no longer in a “post-Cold War” era, but had entered a new “pre-war” era. “The era of peace dividends is over. In five years, we may see multiple arenas, including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea…The era of idealism has given way to the era of hard-headed realism. ,” he said. At least Estonians seem to agree with this, believing that NATO has “three to five years” to prepare for a Russian invasion of NATO territory.

A Swede who responded to Bauer's comments from NATO headquarters agreed with this view. Sweden's Army Chief of Staff Michael Biden said last week that “Russia's war against Ukraine is just a step, not an end goal…We need to recognize how serious the situation really is, and everyone should individually “We need to be mentally prepared for it,” he said.

As reported, leaked German war plans suggest that NATO will take advantage of Europe's fatigue from the Ukraine war and that the United States, distracted by the fallout from this year's presidential election, will launch a new attack on Kiev and narrow They were considering the possibility of taking control of the Swauki Gap. A strip of land that separates Russia's Kaliningrad exclave from the nearest Moscow friendly territory. The Gap, on the border between NATO members Lithuania and Poland, was in the news again this week after jamming, believed to be from Russia, made GPS navigation unreliable in the area.

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