In March 2022, the Cleveland Browns made headlines by signing quarterback Deshaun Watson to a completely guaranteed five-year contract worth $230 million. Shortly after, the NFL advised teams to rethink the trend of guaranteeing contracts in full. This sparked conversations about possible collusion among the league’s 32 owners, though both sides seemed keen to keep things under wraps.
On Tuesday, Pablo Torres and Mike Florio reported that the NFL’s actions were indeed conspiratorial, yet arbitrators ultimately suggested that it was somewhat permissible.
So, what does this really mean?
Understanding the NFL Owner’s Conspiracy
The alleged conspiracy among NFL owners involved all 32 groups agreeing to implement a certain policy across the league without discussing it in collective bargaining agreements with the Players Union. Essentially, this meant avoiding the inclusion of guaranteed money in player contracts.
Are NFL Players’ Contracts Fully Guaranteed?
By default, NFL contracts aren’t guaranteed; if a player wants that security, they need to negotiate it into their deal. If a player has no guaranteed money left, the team isn’t obligated to pay. However, if a player is released while having guaranteed money, the team has to honor that. This conspiracy to refrain from fully guaranteeing veteran contracts could be seen as a violation of contract principles, effectively withholding earnings from players.
In contrast, players in other major sports leagues enjoy fully guaranteed contracts.
It’s worth mentioning that although the NFL Players Association pushed for fully guaranteed contracts in the latest collective bargaining agreement, they didn’t manage to achieve that for agreements signed in 2020.
Why Did the Arbitrator Ruling Downplay the Conspiracy?
According to Florio, arbitrator Christopher Drony wrote that while it was clear the NFL Management Council encouraged owners to cut back on guarantees during their annual meeting in March 2022, the NFLPA struggled to prove that the owners acted on this advice. Since Watson’s contract was fully guaranteed, it drew attention to the inconsistencies—particularly since no other contracts in that manner were signed afterward.
Prominent players like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow have had their own negotiations. While Allen has a significant amount of guaranteed money—$147 million—it’s still about $80 million less than what Watson received, which feels somewhat odd considering Watson hadn’t played in a year.
Florio’s inquiries since 2022 have hinted at larger issues behind the scenes.
Why Keep the Conspiracy Under Wraps?
The arbitrator indicated that while the NFL attempted to collude, they fell short. Gathering all 32 owners to present a united front would not reflect well on them at all.
Additionally, it wouldn’t make sense to antagonize the NFL Players Association right before negotiating for an 18-game season. This kind of ruling could undermine future discussions, given they were clearly in the wrong despite the legal documentation.
Why Is the NFLPA Hesitant to Go Public?
The NFLPA has its own reasons for not wanting to make this situation public, even with the questionable tactics of the NFL. Primarily, they couldn’t definitively show that the alleged conspiracy drove the outcomes they claimed, despite anecdotal evidence suggesting the league owners were avoiding guarantees. That’s a critical oversight.
There are other factors not entirely covered in the arbitrator’s report but discussed by Torres, including documentation that might not paint a favorable image of the NFLPA, particularly concerning President J.C. Tretter.
Russell Wilson’s deal with the Denver Broncos in September 2022 became the first significant quarterback contract negotiated after the Watson agreement. Although worth over $242 million, only $124 million was fully guaranteed—a notable difference from Watson’s contract that raises eyebrows.
When Wilson didn’t pursue a fully guaranteed deal after Watson’s contract, it didn’t sit well with some in the NFLPA. Watson set a benchmark, yet Wilson’s case was crucial for maintaining that standard. Unfortunately, others felt the pressure in negotiations, including Tretter.
Wilson’s team opted for a rolling guarantee instead, which left the Broncos on the hook for only $124 million, despite a more complicated overall deal. This illustrates the advantage of a fully guaranteed contract over a rolling guarantee approach.
Since that owners’ meeting, besides the second pick in 2025, no player has added full guarantees to their NFL contracts.
