After storms earlier in the week and concerns about flash flooding in the Upper Midwest, heavy rainfall will begin to recede as a cold front shifts southeast.
By week’s end, this front is likely to trigger more showers and thunderstorms from the Heartland to the Northeast.
This slow-moving front poses a rain and flood risk for around 30 million Americans.
Regions straddling the Ohio and Tennessee valleys have already seen significant rainfall, and the system is targeting areas where the soil is saturated from heavy rain at the end of June.
The front is advancing southeast as a strong southerly flow builds, which increases storm coverage across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and it’s expected to spread into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Friday.
The abundant moisture and instability ahead of the front could lead to multiple thunderstorms with heavy rainfall lasting into Sunday.
Winds parallel to the front heighten the chances of training thunderstorms, resulting in excessive rainfall as storms repeatedly affect the same areas.
As of Thursday, parts of the Mississippi River Valley, including portions of western Kentucky, southern Illinois, and eastern Missouri, were under a Level 2 of 4 flash flood risk.
By Friday, this threat has slightly shifted eastward, and a Level 2 flash flood risk will again apply to parts of southwestern Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, lasting into early Sunday.
If forecasts indicate that the storm will indeed linger over the same areas, the risk level may even be elevated to Level 3 out of 4 by Friday, as noted by forecasters.
The threat of flash flooding is likely to persist into the following week as the front slowly moves south and east.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated from southern and central Missouri eastward to West Virginia and northern Tennessee, with localized amounts potentially reaching 3 inches in parts of southern Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
In areas where storms repeatedly track, localized totals could be even higher, possibly exceeding 3 to 5 inches.
Furthermore, the flash flood risk will grow, especially in Kentucky, where the ground is already saturated, leading to a flash flood emergency that remains in effect through the end of June.
The most significant and impactful rain is expected to hit the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, although the northeastern front will likely bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend, particularly on Friday.
As the front passes, high pressure will set in behind it, allowing the Northeast to see sunny and dry conditions return by Saturday evening into Sunday.
