Humans Face Extinction Risks by 2100, Experts Warn
According to a recent global risk assessment, humanity could potentially face extinction by 2100 due to the harmful use of artificial intelligence or nuclear conflicts. These threats have been identified as the top risks among 17 significant dangers to human health over the next 75 years, which also encompass reduced aid spending from wealthy nations, climate change, and malnutrition in children.
The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, which conducted the assessment, emphasized that these threats are interconnected and should be tackled collectively. Nevertheless, they also assured that there are achievable measures to address each risk.
“The choices made by leaders today will influence the wellbeing of future generations,” highlighted Prof Christopher Murray, who is co-chair of the commission and directs the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
To compile their findings, the commission evaluated potential years lost due to sickness, disability, or premature deaths related to each threat—using a framework called disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
“The malicious application of AI, including bioweapons, alongside nuclear conflict poses extinction risks within the next 75 years,” the report stated. While the likelihood of such events is currently low, the implications of nuclear warfare could block sunlight and induce famine, or result from AI-generated biological threats. A related editorial in The Lancet cautioned that the widespread damage from these scenarios could lead to catastrophic outcomes for humanity.
Other significant threats identified, which could collectively result in over a billion DALYs, include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, and climate emergencies. Conventional wars, decreasing international aid, excessive alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, educational deficits, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, mental health issues, smoking, and unhealthy aging also made the list.
For threats to qualify, they needed not only to have the potential for considerable health impact but also to offer possible solutions.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL and a commission member, remarked, “Our goal isn’t to alarm anyone by presenting numerous threats. Instead, we want policymakers—whether at local or global levels—to recognize these potential dangers and consider how they can enact meaningful changes.”
Taking measures to curb global warming to around 1.8C (3.2F) instead of allowing it to escalate to 4.4C could prevent a loss of nearly 1.89 billion healthy years, as projected by the report, which explored both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the identified threats.
In wealthier regions, issues like obesity and poor mental health are leading health threats. Conversely, in less affluent areas, factors such as inadequate educational attainment are key contributors to health loss.
Recently, many major donor countries, including the US and UK, disclosed significant cuts to their aid budgets. The commission found that a potential decline in international health assistance could result in up to 1.5 billion DALYs lost before 2100, a considerable portion of which would affect sub-Saharan Africa—an area already grappling with high levels of child malnutrition.
The commission, comprising 35 experts, plans to present its findings at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany. They intend to update their assessment annually, reviewing the 17 identified threats as new data and emerging risks arise.
The authors called upon leaders to proactively manage these risks before they evolve into larger crises, advocating for investments in health system advancements and technological innovations.
“Three years ago, we thought the main threats were conflict, climate change, and pandemics,” Murray explained. “However, we’ve realized there is a far broader spectrum of threats that require governmental attention and resources dedicated to anticipating and preparing for these diverse challenges.”
