Crypto analysts are currently discussing the potential for a rally in October, just ten days away, particularly after the market took a downturn on Monday.
Traditionally, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin (BTC), with gains in all 12 previous years since 2013—coining the term “Uptober.” Notably, the asset hasn’t faced any losses in October since a 3.8% dip in 2018. In the bullish years of 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin rose by 48% and 40%, respectively, during this month.
Some analysts suggest that, if market conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin could potentially reach around $165,000 next month.
Indicators of a Possible Upsurge
On Monday, Kyle Chasse, a crypto enthusiast, remarked on the increasing likelihood of another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, currently sitting at 92%. He mentioned that this cycle seems to be priced into the market, which could boost liquidity and, in turn, fuel Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Another analyst, known as “Sykodelic,” speculated that the market might experience a drop before picking up in October. They noted, “I’ve maintained that $112,500 is a significant mark, and once we reach that, it’s typical for market sentiment to shift bearish, especially with discussions around rate cuts.” They added, “After taking this dip, we could see new highs and a resurgence of market optimism.”
In related news: Bitcoin has rebounded from a “Red September” for the third consecutive year.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex, indicated that the crypto market might enter “Up-only mode” if the U.S. Treasury manages to fill its general accounts, recently reaching over $85 billion. “Once this liquidity drain finishes, a strong bounce back could occur,” he said on social media.
Some Analysts Caution Against Overenthusiasm
On the flip side, some analysts urged caution, suggesting that any tightening in the market could limit Bitcoin’s upward movement. They highlighted low implied volatility and profit-taking trends that might inhibit significant gains.
Jeff May, COO of BTSE Exchange, mentioned that given the current macroeconomic uncertainties and September’s stable market, large gains appear less likely this year. “However,” he cautioned, “this could shift if the Fed takes more aggressive actions to stimulate the economy.”
Market Decline on Monday
The crypto markets saw a decline on Monday, with total market capitalization dropping by $80 billion as Bitcoin fell to a 12-day low of $114,270.
Likewise, Ether (ETH) suffered, dropping more than 4% and dipping below $4,300, marking its lowest point in two weeks.
In other updates: Hayes suggests an “Up Only” scenario for Crypto amid concerns surrounding ETH staking.
