(Bloomberg) — Global financial markets are expecting some turbulence after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president. This development might spark new tensions and affect oil supplies from the area.
Brent crude oil saw a 1.2% drop, settling at $60 a barrel as trading began in Asia. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures and Australian markets both opened slightly up at 0.1%. The dollar’s performance against other major currencies was mixed, and U.S. Treasury futures remained relatively stable. Interestingly, the Mexican peso has weakened from its initial value in response to these shifts.
Precious metals have gained attention lately, with both gold and silver prices rising. Yet, the recent arrest of President Nicolas Maduro has shifted focus onto oil, injecting uncertainty about supply from OPEC nations.
Even though Venezuela isn’t among the top 20 oil producers globally, the rising oil prices and their potential inflationary effects could pose risks to the markets. Analysts on Wall Street are generally hopeful about stock performance this year, but the increasing tensions will certainly test the strength of global equities, which enjoyed their best annual returns since 2017.
“Maduro’s capture may prompt a pressing risk-averse approach in Asian markets, mainly due to higher oil prices and geopolitical risks,” noted John Yin Yoon, CEO of Fibonacci Asset Management Global in Singapore. “However, we don’t foresee a prolonged oil crisis, though there may be short-term impacts on market sentiment.”
Initial observations suggest that global oil markets are likely to navigate through this situation fairly smoothly.
Reports indicate that Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has not been damaged following the series of U.S. strikes in Caracas and surrounding areas. Key facilities, like the Jose Port, Amuay refinery, and Orinoco Belt oil field, are reportedly still operational.
However, a U.S. strike on Venezuela might lead to a temporary spike in oil prices and a shift towards safer investments like gold, according to Kim Do-eun, an analyst at Hana Securities in Seoul. Kim also suggested that there might be a short-term strengthening of the dollar due to rising uncertainty.
Investors are keeping an eye on U.S. Treasury yields, which could negatively affect stock values if they increase significantly. By the end of last week, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 2 basis points to 4.19%, and the 30-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.87%, marking the highest levels since September.
The ongoing question is whether the situation in Venezuela will make U.S. Treasuries more appealing due to increased risks or reduce their demand amid inflation and fiscal concerns.
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, cautioned against overreacting as markets open on Monday, stating that large-scale military involvement seems unlikely. Thus, he doesn’t expect significant repercussions on fiscal policy or bond yields.
Kim Wallace of 22V Research remarked that Maduro’s arrest calls for a “brisk start” to U.S. policy analysis. The real question might be whether the political upheaval in 2026 brings tangible risks or opportunities for investors, or if this is just a fleeting spike in uncertainty.
“The key concern for investors is what happens next from Washington,” Wallace commented. “Given the unpredictable nature of both Venezuela’s situation and U.S. policy, it’s likely to curb risk-taking activities.”
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson voiced that a slight rate reduction might be in order for the latter half of 2026, depending on economic conditions.
U.S. stock investors kicked off 2026 cautiously on Friday, with benchmarks showing modest gains in the year’s first trading session. Asian markets have experienced their best new year’s start since 2012, buoyed by technology stocks.
“Equity markets will react mainly to news headlines, even as volatility ramps up. Ultimately, interest rates and U.S.-centric events will guide market trends in 2026,” emphasized Dave Mazza, CEO of Round Hill Investments.
Looking ahead, key economic indicators are poised to influence the upcoming week. In addition to the employment report for December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will share data on job openings, retirements, and layoffs on Wednesday. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management could also shed light on employment trends in manufacturing and services.
This weekend, the U.S. government is expected to publish the housing starts for October, along with the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index for January.
In company news:
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Tesla has lost its place as the leading electric car seller to China’s BYD, a position it had maintained for a decade.
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Airbus SE reportedly delivered 793 aircraft in 2025, surpassing its adjusted annual target.
Key market movements include:
stock
currency
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The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained mostly unchanged.
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The euro was steady around $1.1708.
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The yen held stable at 156.76 against the dollar.
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The offshore yuan was also stable at 6.9706 to the dollar.
cryptocurrency
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Bitcoin increased by 0.2% to $91,406.89
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Ether was up 0.1% to $3,147.48
bond
merchandise
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West Texas Intermediate crude oil dipped by 0.5% to $57.06 a barrel.
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Spot gold increased by 0.5% to $4,355.58 an ounce.
