Political newcomer Zoran Mamdani is gaining a surprising amount of attention among older voters, which—depending on how you look at it—might not be great news for his campaign in the New York mayoral race.
Data from the early days of voting shows that nearly 60% of ballots were cast by individuals aged 50 and up. This trend indicates a strong turnout from Gen Xers, baby boomers, and older residents, and it’s thought to potentially favor former governor Andrew Cuomo. Stephen Graves, who leads Gotham Polling, mentioned that Cuomo, 67, is keen on preventing the socialist Mamdani, 34, from entering City Hall.
Graves remarked, “The more people that show up to vote, the better it is for Mr. Cuomo.” He added, “Higher turnout tends to benefit centrists, especially among less active voters.”
Approximately 164,000 voters participated over the weekend, with a significant 95,000 of those being 50 and older, according to city election commission data. This comes in stark contrast to the roughly 67,000 votes during the first two days of the Democratic primary in June.
During his campaign, Mamdani had stirred a wave of excitement among younger voters, which helped him surprisingly clinch the Democratic nomination against Cuomo. However, Graves pointed out that while Mamdani seems to maintain strong support among the youth, his overall backing remains somewhat limited.
“Mr. Mamdani has a solid base among young people, but it doesn’t extend very far. Conversely, Mr. Cuomo enjoys significant backing from those over 50, who generally represent the largest voting bloc,” he explained.
Graves also noted that Cuomo, running as an independent, might face complications due to Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa’s continued presence in the race. Sliwa, who consistently polls in third place, has resisted suggestions to drop out in favor of Cuomo, which could improve Cuomo’s odds against Mamdani.
“It’s hard to say how many of Sliwa’s supporters might feel he can’t win, and then shift their support to Cuomo, whom they don’t even like,” Graves mentioned. “Many who back Cuomo are doing so as a vote against Mamdani.”
John Catsimatidis, a prominent Republican and friend of Sliwa, chose to vote for Cuomo early on. He shared, “I went with Mr. Cuomo because he’s the only Democrat in a city that leans heavily Democratic.” He’s also not a fan of Mamdani, stating, “The other guy, he’s a socialist.”
A recent poll by AARP highlights that almost 80% of undecided voters fall into the 50-plus age range.
Graves predicts that total voter turnout for the mayoral election usually hovers around 1.1 million but expects this particular election could attract between 1.6 to 1.7 million voters. While increased turnout could favor Cuomo, it’s still unclear how many more voters he’d need to appeal to independents to make the race competitive.
“If we hit 1.6 million to 1.8 million votes, that would definitely help Cuomo,” he noted.
The strong turnout among older voters has raised concerns among some supporters of Mamdani, including state Rep. Ron Kim (D-Queens). Kim expressed worries that it “doesn’t look good for Zoran” and mentioned that older working-class Democrats in his area are organizing against socialism while feeling neglected by the left.
On the other hand, when asked about the voter turnout on Monday, Mamdani focused on issues of affordability, emphasizing the relevance of his message for seniors. He stated, “It’s great to see more New Yorkers casting their votes. I’m confident in my campaign to reach those over 55, and I’m not taking anything for granted.”
