“It may be dangerous to be an enemy of America, but deadly to be a friend of America,” the late Henry Kissinger told William F. Buckley. Although the Israeli-American alliance has not become fatal, and probably will not be, Israel faces difficult choices and a persistently dangerous security situation.
Zoom out from the battlefield in Gaza, an area the size of Brooklyn and Queens, or the 19 miles from the Israel-Lebanon border to the Litani River, and consider the chaos the Biden administration has wrought on the world. Israel's biggest problem is that American influence is crumbling around the world, and being an ally of the United States means it has a target on its back. Israel's second biggest problem is that its ally, the United States, has repeatedly sandbagged Israel.
Instead of peace through strength, Biden proposed peace through weakness. This has significant implications for Israel's position.
October 7, 2023 was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, with 1,200 people killed, many raped and tortured, and 250 kidnapped. This equates to 55,000 Americans compared to Israel's Jewish population of 7.2 million, or about 20 times the death toll on 9/11.
According to Brown University estimates, America's global war on terror has caused 900,000 civilian casualties. Between 10,000 and 40,000 civilians were killed in the capture of the Iraqi city of Mosul from ISIS between 2016 and 2017. Israel's campaign to eradicate Hamas from Gaza has been assessed by comparison.
But Hamas has succeeded in forcing Israel into war on its own terms, aiming to maximize its own civilian casualties because it is better to isolate Israel diplomatically. It is an innovation in war.
There is no precedent for combatants intentionally mass killing their own civilians. But it became an excuse for the global left to demonize the Jewish state. For the first time, the destruction of Israel implied in the slogan “From the River to the Sea” became an acceptable opinion in polite company.
After all, the small war on Israel's borders is overshadowed by two major conflicts: the Ukraine war and the U.S.-China Cold War. Thanks to the Biden administration's recklessness, America is losing both.
Biden said in a March 2023 post that U.S. foreign policy officials believe sanctions will cut Russia's economy in half. In return, Russia's economy expanded and its production of ammunition and weapons exceeded NATO's combined efforts. Russia is gradually winning a war of attrition that is depleting Ukraine's limited human resources. The Biden administration, which staked NATO's credibility on confronting Russia, may have destroyed NATO.
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Tariffs and technology sanctions against China have slowed, but not stopped, the world's largest manufacturing economy. Since the coronavirus outbreak, China has doubled its exports to the Global South, and its supply chain is driving Global South exports to the United States. America's trade deficit has ballooned to a record $1.2 trillion, and it now imports more Chinese goods through third countries than before the tariffs.
Technology sanctions against China have left the country several years behind the United States in chip technology, but it has not stopped production of advanced computer chips. It also hasn't stopped China from dominating many of the world's major high-tech industries, including electric vehicles, alternative energy, and communications infrastructure.
What some analysts call China's “overcapacity” is better characterized as rapid advances in AI applications in manufacturing and logistics, significantly lowering production costs for EVs and other key exports. do.
Instead of peace through strength, the Biden administration has proposed peace through weakness. This has significant implications for Israel's position.
Russia has deepened ties with Iran, North Korea, and China, seeking assistance wherever possible. China imports 90% of Iran's burgeoning oil production. As long as the United States remains at odds with Russia and China, there are limits to its ability to contain Iran. Based on the principle that the friend of an enemy is an enemy, China became Israel's enemy.
However, Israel's biggest problem is that it cannot trust its ally the United States. Withholding vital ammunition during a gunfight is the least of Biden's misdeeds. The US government, mediated by Qatar, is insisting that Israel offer a cessation of hostilities (that is, the continued existence of Hamas as a military force) in exchange for the return of the hostages. That adds insult to injury.
The Israeli intelligence failure of October 7 has been endlessly examined. As Israeli commentator Ehud Yaari pointed out, the attack could have been thwarted if six attack helicopters were stationed on the border. Israel's lower-ranking communications and intelligence officers had repeatedly warned of a possible attack, but the highest military and political leadership refused to believe it. Specifically, Israeli leaders believed disinformation coming from Qatar, a gas bubble with the Principality of Stamps at its apex.
Qatari diplomats travel to Gaza monthly with suitcases containing more than $15 million in cash, assuring Israelis that Hamas is being paid to remain silent. In January 2022, the Biden administration elevated Qatar to the status of a “major non-NATO ally,” the same as Israel and South Korea. Qatar is home to the largest U.S. military base outside the continental United States, U.S. intelligence agencies work closely with Qatar, and Qatar was part of the CIA-backed Sunni jihad during Syria's 2010-2017 civil war. Provided $5 billion to the warriors. Qatar is a major financial supporter. An organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is the Palestinian branch. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates attempted to blockade Qatar in 2018-2019, but were thwarted by Iran, which continued to trade with Qatar and the United States.
After Hamas' clients in Qatar attacked Israel, Qatar did not impose any penalties on Hamas, and Hamas continued to operate as before from a luxury hotel suite in Doha. The United States, which treats Qatar as an equal ally of Israel, did not impose any penalties on Qatar. On the contrary, it has enhanced Qatar's status as an intermediary between Hamas and Israel.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration granted Iran access to $6 billion in frozen South Korean accounts in 2023 and released an additional $10 billion in frozen assets in March 2024. While countries like China, Russia, and North Korea have been able to avoid U.S. sanctions, the administration's leniency toward states that support Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations is reprehensible.
After Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at Israel last week, causing virtually no casualties but not insignificant damage, Israel is left with a dire choice. It could destroy Iran's two main oil terminals and cut off its source of foreign currency, at the cost of incurring world wrath on Iran. It is possible that they will try to destroy Iran's missile production capabilities. It is unclear whether destroying the excavated nuclear facility is an option.
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There are several possible outcomes.
If Donald Trump is elected in November, U.S. policy will move away from coddling Iran and Qatar and return to a core idea of the former Trump administration's regional policy: extending the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia. We can expect that.
Once the Ukraine war ends, politics in the region will change. Iran will become the odd man out, as Russia will have less incentive to act as a spoiler and more incentive to restore normal relations with its European trading partners.
If the Biden-Harris administration continues, Israel faces a long and debilitating war in which it can hold out but cannot achieve a stable peace. Betrayed by the United States, Israel will have to operate as best it can in a world where American influence is diminished. October 7th would have been a dark day not only for Israel but also for the United States.
