A week after Israel launched its ground invasion of Lebanon and a year after Hezbollah, in support of Hamas, fired rockets into northern Israel on October 7, 2023, Jerusalem The fighting force was reinforced by the 3rd Division, and questions immediately arose as to its extent. It has ended its “limited” operations in Lebanon.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Sunday sent troops from its 91st Division, also known as the Galilee Formation, to join forces already searching for Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.
The 91st Division, traditionally responsible for overseeing security along the entire border with Lebanon, will augment efforts already undertaken by two other divisions.
In this image published on October 6, 2024, Israeli soldiers operate in what is shown as southern Lebanon. (Israel Defense Forces/Source via Reuters)
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Israel's first march into Lebanon was led by soldiers from the 98th Division on October 1, which includes paratroopers, elite special forces, and the 7th Armored Brigade, and was launched in September for training. The foundation reported that he was transferred from the Gaza border to northern Israel in early January. Defense of Democracy (FDD) long war diary It took place on Sunday ahead of the IDF's announcement.
“Troops from the Special Forces Brigade, including soldiers from the Egoz Force, located and destroyed Hezbollah attack infrastructure, including rocket launchers, explosive stockpiles, and additional military equipment,” the Israel Defense Forces said of the initial operation.
At least nine IDF soldiers were killed on October 1-2 in one of the early battles in Lebanon, although Hezbollah's response was fairly muted, as many were believed to have withdrawn ahead of the invasion. confirmed the Long War Journal.
Reinforcements from the IDF's 36th Division, including the Golani Infantry, 188th Armored Brigade, and 6th Reserve Infantry Brigade, were then sent in, according to reports last week.
People mourn during a funeral in Kiryat Ata, Israel, on October 6, 2024, for Israeli soldier Nazar Itkin, who was killed in combat in southern Lebanon during the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. (Reuters/Sil Tolem/TPX Picture of the Day)
IDF Spokesperson Leah said this is a security measure that the United States and other international allies have warned against Jerusalem in the wake of Israel's invasion. Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israel had no intention of advancing ground forces north toward Beirut and would instead focus on securing villages near the border.
Jerusalem claims the operation in Lebanon is necessary to secure the area for the return of some 60,000 Israelis from northern Israel, but data collected by FDD shows that around 150,000 Israelis are shown being evacuated from the northern border area.
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Hagari said the incursion would be “limited” and would take “days” to “weeks” to complete.
But renewed support for additional troops on Monday raised questions from the U.S. State Department and elsewhere about the scope of Israel's plans in southern Lebanon.
In response to reporters' questions about Israel's operations in Lebanon, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said, “We are monitoring this situation very closely.”
“We support their ability to target militants, destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, and degrade Hezbollah's capabilities. However, we support their ability to target militants, destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, and degrade Hezbollah's capabilities. However, we believe that , I am well aware that I have been there for months or even years,” he added. “And ultimately, that's not the outcome we want.”
In this image published on October 6, 2024, Israeli soldiers operate in what is shown as southern Lebanon. (Israel Defense Forces/Source via Reuters)
Israel has not announced any plans for additional ground forces and says an IDF division is engaged in “targeted, limited and localized operations” to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. said.
However, a security expert from the FDD said that if Israel deems it necessary to further strengthen its attack capabilities against Hezbollah, it may take precautionary steps to increase its military capabilities in the region. did.
David Dowd, a senior researcher at FDD who specializes in Hezbollah and Lebanon, told Fox News Digital: “What the Israelis are doing is making sure that the cost of continuing to attack in support of Gaza is too high for the organization. “We are gradually increasing pressure on Hezbollah.” .
Daoud said that after the October 8 attack, Israel and Hezbollah had engaged in “mutual attrition” and continued to attack each other, but unlike the attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, they did not use airstrikes. He explained that the attack level rarely exceeds that level. , 2023.
This graph is based on the FDD's report titled “The Road to the Third Lebanon War: Mapping the War of Attrition After October 8, 2023.'' shows the number of Hezbollah attacks launched by (Image provided by Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD))
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This level of involvement changed after an Israeli communications equipment operation that allegedly detonated about 5,000 pagers previously distributed to Hezbollah operatives. killed over 30 people Approximately 3,000 people were injured in coordinated attacks in late September.
Israel has not admitted responsibility for the attack, but open source data compiled by Israel shows that FDD Latest Interactive Report Dubbed “Mapping a War of Attrition, the Path to the Third Lebanon War,'' this event marked a clear starting point for a dramatic change in the way Jerusalem countered Hezbollah.
On September 22, Israel carried out the most extensive artillery bombardment against terrorist groups since the October 8, 2023 attacks, and nearly five times as many strikes as during its second-largest attack. Made 1,182 attacks. The FDD investigation found that 239 strikes were held during the February 11, 2024 strike campaign.
This graph shows how FDD will respond to Hezbollah after October 8, 2023, compiled in its report titled “The Road to the Third Lebanon War: Mapping the War of Attrition After October 8, 2023.” It shows the number of Israeli attacks launched in (Image provided by Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD))
“I would call this a type of active attrition,” said Dowd, a co-author of the FDD report. “The Israelis are no longer on a balance of attrition and are giving Hezbollah a significant burden without a full-scale ground invasion.”
The expert explained that the IDF is “gradually increasing pressure” on Hezbollah to withdraw its support for Hamas, and that a similar strategy is being used to persuade Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to hand over the hostages. He explained that he had also taken it in Gaza to persuade him. .
Despite the untold suffering the IDF has caused in the Gaza Strip, the hostages remain in Hamas' captivity, so the merits of this approach are debatable, and Daoud said the tactic has become more sophisticated and He questioned whether it would be effective against Hezbollah, a better-armed and better-funded organization. and more deeply involved in Lebanese society.
“I don't think Hezbollah will back down even though it's causing so much pain to the Israelis,” Daoud said. “Therefore, there is a possibility that a ground invasion may become necessary, and in that case we want to have our forces ready to carry it out at a moment's notice.”
Experts stress that Israel may be revisiting the creation of a “safe zone” in Lebanon to create a buffer zone between Hezbollah's stronghold and the Israeli border, a move that could lead to Israel This would replicate the measures taken between the country and the border. 1985 and 2000 And in that case, the IDF would need to stay in Lebanon for a long time.
Smoke and flames rise in Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli airstrike, seen from Sin el Fir, Lebanon, October 6, 2024. (Reuters/Amr Abdallah Darsh)
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It is unclear whether Israel is considering another buffer zone scenario, but it is likely to be unpopular not only with the Lebanese government but also with the international community, which is increasingly pushing Israel to introduce a buffer zone. There is. Reduce footprint within the region By adopting a two-state solution with the Palestinians in the south and along Israel's eastern border.
But Daoud said the threat from Hezbollah has not gone away, and the creation of a buffer zone combined with continued airstrikes could be the solution that would most reassure the international community, avoiding a full-scale ground invasion across Lebanon. He claimed to have sex.
“There are ways to avoid a ground invasion,” Dowd insisted. “It will take longer, but given the state of international opinion, now is probably a better option for Israel than a full-scale invasion all the way to Beirut.”
Israel has not announced plans to carry out ground operations to dislodge Hezbollah forces from strongholds like Beirut, but it has increased the number of attacks on suburban areas outside the capital, and since late September the United States has organizing the withdrawal of soldiers. 700 Americans from Lebanon.
