The market for new stocks on Wall Street has hit a pause, but experts suggest that major investors still have money. Instead, they’re holding onto their funds for what might be a historic mega-deal, choosing not to overpay for smaller offerings.
Anthropic, a San Francisco-based AI company known for its Claude chatbot, is eyeing a valuation close to $2 trillion for its upcoming initial public offering. It is projected to raise as much as $100 billion in the upcoming weeks.
This potential deal could easily eclipse SpaceX’s record-setting $86.2 billion debut from June, making 2026 a landmark year for new capital raised.
“Anthropic is the main story for the Q4 IPO market. Forget everything else,” stated Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist from the pre-IPO research firm Renaissance Capital.
“Similar to SpaceX, Anthropic could easily raise more than all IPOs from both 2025 and 2024 combined,” he remarked.
The looming deal casts a shadow over a cautious market, with several noteworthy offerings recently losing momentum.
For instance, smart-ring producer Oura chose to delay its listing on Nasdaq just hours before pricing it at a valuation of $15.6 billion, citing market uncertainty. Even though demand outstripped available shares fourfold, potential investors hesitated, concerned about both the price and Oura’s dependence on a single product.
Other companies have also pulled back. Holtec Nuclear, which provides nuclear services and hoped to capitalize on the data center surge, halted its planned $825 million IPO on September 17. Meanwhile, SoftBank postponed its listing of SB Energy after investors questioned a valuation exceeding $50 billion.
Market Uncertainty
While some bankers argue that Anthropic is monopolizing attention, market analysts believe the slowdown is more related to a classic struggle over pricing amid a shaky global environment.
“I wouldn’t attribute Anthropic’s presence to a black hole preventing other companies from going public,” said Kennedy. “It’s more about the tougher market conditions right now. If firms could achieve their desired valuations, they would likely proceed.”
Analysts from Deutsche Bank, Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon, pointed to the uncertain climate stemming from the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and rising oil prices as contributing factors to recent IPO delays.
According to them, skepticism regarding tech valuations started over the summer, when investors began questioning inflated prices and the sustainability of AI expenditures.
Now, investors are looking for a wider margin to absorb those risks, with typical valuations seeing a 10% to 15% discount, while buyers are now inclined to seek closer to a 20% discount.
“The market is distinguishing between AI-related firms and others,” remarked Jay Ritter, a finance professor from the University of Florida who has studied IPOs extensively.
Although investors are ready to pay a premium for top-tier AI models like Anthropic, they perceive infrastructure-heavy companies, such as those involved in data centers, as more of a “commodity business.”
Companies not competing directly with Anthropic, like biotech startups, are finding it easier to price their deals, as they’re not vying for the same pool of cash.
There’s still plenty of capital available. U.S. mutual funds, which include many retirement investments, reportedly hold about $17 trillion in stock assets.
However, a tough summer for new stocks has made fund managers more cautious about their investments. Data from Dealogic indicates that the average U.S. debut had a 24% price increase from its offer price by the end of June, which plummeted to less than 1% by late September.
Broader economic challenges are giving buyers even more leverage. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate in mid-September, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a nearly two-decade high of around 5.3%.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director, pointed out that yields above 5.2% provide a safe and attractive alternative to stocks, which pressures private valuations significantly.
“Investors are no longer willing to pay high multiples,” he said.
The traditional middle tier of Silicon Valley startups has suffered the most. Venture-backed software companies, once the mainstay of Wall Street’s IPO calendar, have mostly vanished from view.
As of mid-September, a total of 109 U.S. IPOs had raised $146.5 billion, according to Renaissance Capital data.
Looking Ahead
The fate of forthcoming stock debuts heavily depends on how Anthropic performs upon its trading debut, which is rumored to happen around Thanksgiving.
A strong launch could free up billions for subsequent deals, whereas a weak performance might delay IPOs well into 2027.
“In a standard IPO calendar, underperformance of a deal this size would likely freeze the market temporarily,” Kennedy noted.
“If investors collectively lose billions on Anthropic, they won’t be too eager to support the next IPO from firms like Goldman or Morgan Stanley,” he added.
“A successful Anthropic IPO could definitely invigorate the rest of the pipeline. If investors profit from that, they’ll likely reinvest in the IPO market.”
If Anthropic postpones its launch until next year, Ritter speculated that it would likely be due to the unique risks related to pioneering technology rather than general market conditions.
The company’s draft prospectus warns that advanced AI models might “pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.”
“If there is a delay, safety concerns will likely be a significant factor,” Ritter commented. “Other firms don’t face the same prospect of listing mass extinction as a risk factor.”
