The 2024 presidential election will once again pit elites against the people. Historically, there is nothing unusual about this juxtaposition. What makes this race unusual is the decisive switch in the groups each party represents.
Campaign rhetoric may be slow, and Democrats will surely deny it, but the reality for each party is reversed.
French political scientist in the 1950s Maurice Duverger He theorized that states with winner-take-all elections would create two-party systems. The reason is simple. Both parties and voters will find that the two parties can maximize their chances of winning while maintaining differentiation of positions.
The United States has served as proof of Duberger's Law since it was established more than two centuries ago. During that time, parties have changed (the Federalists and Whigs are long gone), but only two major parties have always contested elections, albeit less frequently. For more than a century and a half, it has meant Democrats and Republicans.
While the system itself is stagnant in terms of the number of parties and even the number of specific parties, issues and party positions within parties are constantly changing. But here, too, there has been a conventional understanding of who and what Democrats and Republicans represent.
On July 9, 1896, at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, former Congressman William Jennings Bryans from Nebraska golden cross speech It fascinated the participants. Bryan was a dark horse candidate at best, but his advocacy for easy monetary policy and his speech, “We must not crucify humanity with a cross of gold,'' ensured the nomination at the convention.
Bryan seems to have turned the Democratic Party into a populist party. But literally the opposite happened. populist party The main third party, the Populists, aimed to break the Duberger Act and had won more than 8 percent of the popular vote in 1892 and in four western states.
Receiving support from both Populists and Democrats didn't help Bryan. He, like nearly every Democratic candidate from 1860 to 1932, lost. But what he accomplished was to establish the Democratic Party's tradition of representing the common man.
This is something that today's Democratic Party still clings to, while labeling the Republican Party as representing the elite. But by any objective standard, that legacy is long gone. Today, Democrats and Republicans have not simply shifted their positions on issues and areas of the country where they have the upper hand, but they have shifted their constituencies at the most fundamental level. The Democratic Party now represents the elitists, and the Republican Party represents the populists.
The Democratic Party has been in power for a long time established media. This doesn't matter because it was (and still is for many) a way to provide information to the public. It should come as no surprise to anyone that college campuses are nursery schools for the Democratic Party. But if the aftermath of Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel has shown America anything, it's how left-wing academia is, especially in the far-left sectors. elite university campus.
Now they are also dominating in entertainment, sports, and the arts. The same applies to science. There it is nothing but a cabal that enforces groupthink. New coronavirus theory Amidst a pandemic that has affected social media policies.Of course, the same thing existed before climate change It's been many years now.
even Wealthy It's much more to the left than the rest of the country. And these wealthy people also financially support the left and the Democratic Party.For some people, george sorostheir support far exceeds that of regular Democrats.
Virtually everywhere there are groups with elites who support the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party returns the favor.
On the other hand, let's look at the Republican side. Mr. Trump is nothing more than a populist. And his supporters are also populists.
recently NYT/Siena Poll As for the percentage of eligible voters, Trump was behind Biden by 45% to 47% overall, and among voters without a bachelor's degree, Trump led by 54% to 39%, but among voters with a bachelor's degree, Trump led by 59% to 32%. It didn't come close to that. Among those with annual incomes of less than $50,000, Trump led 49% to 46%. Among those with annual incomes of $100,000 or more, Trump fell behind by 42% to 50%, and among those with annual incomes of $50,000 to $100,000, Trump fell behind by 43% to 49%.
Indeed, rhetoric has not kept up with reality. This is especially true for Democrats. And we shouldn't expect that to happen during this year's campaign. Of all the Republicans, Trump is the happiest with this. Perhaps this is why he has won the last two Republican presidential nominations and is still essentially defeating his major opponents. Republican voters are now populists.
America still has a two-party system. And we still have the same two major political parties that have existed for more than a century and a half. But the broad constituencies represented by these two of her parties have not just changed. These constituencies have been fundamentally reversed.
The 2024 campaign, like Bryan's 1896 campaign, will likely be an elitist versus populist contest. But this time it will be a battle between Democratic elitists and Republican populists. And this reversal has never been more clear than it is today.
JT Young served on the professional staff of the House and Senate from 1987 to 2000, with the Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and as director of government communications for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023. I served.
Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
