Pennsylvania poses problems for President Joe Biden

President Biden, nicknamed “Scranton Joe,” frequently mentions Pennsylvania in his speeches and his campaign has spent millions of dollars on political advertising there.

In 2020, the president set up campaign headquarters in Philadelphia before the coronavirus pandemic and visited the state more than any other battleground state during the election.

And winning the state and its electoral college votes catapulted him to the White House.

But now some Democrats say the state could undermine Biden’s “blue wall.”

They point to two recent polls that show former President Trump with a slim lead — a near tie.

But it’s not the top-line numbers that concern them, it’s the decline occurring within the Democratic base.

A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll released earlier this month found that Biden’s support among young voters in the state has fallen from 62% to 47% since 2020. His support has also fallen among black and Hispanic voters, from 71% to 57%.

The Times/Siena/Inquirer poll also showed Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania), who is running for reelection against Republican Dave McCormick, leading Biden by 10 points.

If Biden is performing so poorly in states where he has strong ties, what about the rest of the Blue Wall states?

“Democrats have done very well in the state over the last few years, and there’s no reason why Biden can’t do the same,” said one top strategist, pointing to the race between Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) “Everyone knows this is a battleground state, but it shouldn’t be close. Biden should be ahead all the time, and the fact that he’s not should be a wake-up call.”

Former Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pennsylvania) also said he was troubled by recent polling.

“I’m surprised that things aren’t going well,” Altmire said. “If there’s anywhere he can do better than President Trump, or even better, it’s Pennsylvania, because of his personal connection to him, the work he’s put in for decades, and the state tends to lean Democratic.”

Still, Altmire said he believes Biden will ultimately win. “I think he’s doing everything he can. They’re doing everything they can.”

Biden is scheduled to return to Philadelphia on Wednesday to campaign again. Biden aides have poured significant resources into the state, including opening 24 field offices, and say they have a major infrastructure advantage over Trump.

Biden campaign officials say voters are not yet paying attention to the campaign, but once they start paying more attention to the race, they will recognize the accomplishments Biden has made since taking office.

The campaign also said it has launched key coalitions across the state, including Out for Biden-Harris, Women for Biden-Harris and Latinos Con Biden-Harris, to organize communities that are key to winning the state.

Campaign officials say they are focusing on winning over voters who supported Republican candidate Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, who won over 157,000 voters in Pennsylvania’s primary, and that Biden’s campaign says she could help woo away some voters who don’t want to back Trump.

“In 2020, Donald Trump lost Pennsylvania and the White House. Since then, Trump has only grown more extreme, citing January 6th and boasting about overturning Roe v. Wade,” said Jack Doyle, communications director for the Biden campaign in Pennsylvania. “Pennsylvanians reject Trump’s chaos and will once again support Joe Biden in November.”

But right now, the latest polls in Pennsylvania show it’s a close race.

A Muhlenberg College poll of state voters released earlier this month showed Trump leading Biden head-to-head, 44 percent to 41 percent. The college’s previous poll had Biden leading 42 percent to 41 percent.

Christopher Bolick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute for Public Opinion Research, said Biden has performed less favorably among young people and black people than he did in 2020. He also performed less favorably than other Democratic candidates in the state in recent elections.

“The most loyal Democrats, and their percentage within that group, is lower than it traditionally is, and that’s a huge problem for Biden,” Bolick said.

He blamed the economy for his slump in support during this election.

Equally worrying from Biden’s perspective is that the president is losing support from certain voters crucial to a Democratic victory, while Trump is thriving.

The former president has appealed directly to Black and Hispanic voters in recent days while seeking to criticize Biden’s handling of immigration, a top issue for voters.

Trump said at a rally in New York on Thursday that the “biggest negative impact” of illegal immigrant workers is “on black and Hispanic people who are losing their jobs, who are losing their homes, who are losing everything they have to lose. They’re the ones who are most affected by what’s going on.”

The Biden campaign says it is not neglecting voters, opening offices in Black neighborhoods earlier than in the past and communicating with local communities about Biden’s accomplishments, including record-low unemployment.

Former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell (Democrat) argued that overall, Biden is “doing pretty well” in the state.

“I’m confident that if the election were held tomorrow, Biden would win,” Rendell said in an interview, adding that Biden’s legislative victories, particularly on infrastructure, have “huge implications.”

But the former governor acknowledged he’s concerned that Biden’s support is declining among key voters. “It’s worrying because it’s so close,” he said of recent polls.

Rendell and other Democrats said the Biden campaign should continue to target groups like young voters with ads highlighting its successes on issues like the environment and student debt. Similarly, Rendell said the campaign should target black voters to highlight Biden’s accomplishments.

Altmire predicted that of the northern blue wall states, which also include Wisconsin and Michigan, Pennsylvania was the least likely to vote for Trump again since it won for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But, he added, “If Biden loses Pennsylvania, he loses the presidency.”

“I can say that with 100% confidence,” he said. “I don’t think Pennsylvania itself is the determining factor, but this trend will spread to other states.”