There are 70 days left until Election Day. The Republican National Convention has concluded, with Donald Trump and J.D. Vance leading the Republican race. The Democratic National Convention has also concluded. Behind usKamala Harris and Tim Walz won their party’s nomination after President Biden abruptly dropped out of the race in July.
If there’s one common theme among politicians from both parties, it’s the way they misrepresent information to promote a positive view of themselves and a negative view of their opponents.
In today’s digital world, it is common to use data to make claims. With the vast amount of data available, it is easy to find evidence to support almost anything a politician wants to claim. Perception may not be reality, but voters must sift through all that information and make their own assessment and conclusion.
As an example that affects almost everyone, consider the economy: is it healthy or struggling? This question sounds simple, but the answer depends on the data you use.
Key Indicators Stock Market It is approaching an all-time high. inflation Inflation is stable at around 3% and inflation is slowing. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to cut interest rates later this year. These aggregate indicators can be interpreted as meaning the economy is strong. But many of these indicators have limited impact on some people.
However Purchasing power (wage growth minus inflation) has been positive for the past year, Awareness of rising prices Some people’s views on the economy are weakening. The unemployment rate is now about 4.3 percentand Slowing job creationIt depends a lot on the field you work in, but in some fieldsStruggling to find skilled workers There are plenty of people looking for work in other fields too.
All of this data is fact. What differs is how it is filtered to make a desired point – casting a dark shadow on your opponent and a bright light on yourself. This is the nature of politics and campaigning, and is part of every politician’s election strategy. Since the birth of our country.
When data and information are misused, Fact Checker Dive right in and evaluate what is being said and its veracity. Often times fact-checking will debunk a politician’s misinformation, but with little to no effect. In today’s political environment, there is no accountability for politicians when they make obviously false statements or (conveniently) fail to provide the full picture of a situation.
Both Republicans and Democrats are guilty of these distortions, and voters of both parties are primed to believe them and to disparage everything the other side offers.
For example, Donald Trump criticized Kamala Harris at a press conference on August 15, saying, “Under California law, you cannot be prosecuted for robbing a store if the amount stolen is under $950.” PolitiFact rated this claim as falseSimilarly, Politifact rated it as follows: Mostly wrong“Donald Trump is going to cut Medicare,” Harris said at a rally in Atlanta on July 30.
There’s no direct way to stop these misrepresentations, but voters should welcome them, because they actually serve as valuable information: When candidates make outrageous statements that misrepresent data, voters can learn more about their characters and policies.
Of course, voters tend to believe what they want rather than the truth.
It’s this simple truth that candidates seem to forget in their election strategies: Given the polarized state of the country and the electorate, a small minority of voters will ultimately decide who wins the White House. 110,000 votes Three states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) had roughly 10,000 cases in 2020. 50,000 votes, Three states (Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona) also voted similarly, and it is only these states and their voters that matter in assessing the candidates’ credibility and electability.
Misrepresentation of data, including: Deepfakeproviding valuable information to voters. For example, Fake Taylor Swift promotion, It’s inviting a backlash. Because social media effectively transmits information at the speed of light, politicians today would be wise to keep what they say about their opponents as close to the truth as possible. Given that it likely only takes a few thousand votes to change the Electoral College results and determine who wins the White House, the risk of exposure could be a candidate’s downfall.
So while Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are sure to get cheers from their respective supporters at rallies when they say things about each other, their real audience is the 100,000 people in key battleground states they should be speaking to. In fact, the candidate who makes the most egregious lies may end up losing on Election Day.
Sheldon H. JacobsonHe holds a PhD and is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
