Republican Kurt Alme Leads in Montana Senate Race Poll

In a recent survey by Quantus Insights, Republican Kurt Alme is receiving 43.6 percent support among likely voters in Montana, placing him ahead of independent candidate Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead in the U.S. Senate race.

The poll, conducted between September 14-15 with 625 participants, shows Alme at 43.6 percent, while Bodnar has 24.3 percent and Bankhead stands at 23.1 percent. There are 7.2 percent of voters who remain undecided and another 1.7 percent who picked other candidates. Alme’s lead of 19.3 points over Bodnar comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Analysis of the data reveals Alme is favored among both genders. He received 47.3 percent of support from men compared to Bodnar’s 25.7 percent. Among women, Alme garnered 40.3 percent while Bodnar earned 23.2 percent. Interestingly, Bodnar did have an edge among independent voters, leading 40.3 percent to Alme’s 34.8 percent.

A significant number of voters have expressed confidence in their choices. Of the 569 respondents who were asked about the certainty of their votes, 81.7 percent indicated they were firm in their decision, while 15.4 percent felt they might reconsider and 2.9 percent were unsure.

In terms of favorability, Alme is viewed positively by 48.4 percent of respondents, though 38.9 percent hold an unfavorable view of him. Bodnar’s ratings are close, with 43.5 percent favorability and 41.8 percent unfavorability. Bankhead, however, is seen favorably by only 32.7 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent of the respondents.

This survey aligns with earlier polling that also indicated Alme’s lead, albeit with varying margins. For example, a GrayHouse poll from July placed Alme at 41 percent, Bankhead at 25 percent, and Bodnar at 17 percent. Similarly, a survey commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported Alme at 45 percent, Bankhead at 30 percent, and Bodnar at 15 percent.

In response to Bodnar’s fundraising practices, Alme recently challenged him to return the $1.76 million raised through ActBlue, arguing that Bodnar is masking his political affiliations while depending heavily on a platform associated with Democrats. Alme accused Bodnar of being “a far-left Democrat in disguise” and highlighted concerns over his positions on various issues, including taxes and immigration. Fundraising data has shown that Bodnar raised over $3.2 million by June 30, with about half coming from ActBlue. It’s also noted that Bodnar had previously registered as a Democrat in Connecticut and has a history of supporting Democratic causes.