Discontent with President Trump’s approach to Iran reached new heights in July. A significant number of voters oppose U.S. military involvement, and nearly two-thirds believe the conflict could extend for over a year.
As per a recent poll, 56% of Americans are against military action in Iran, with 40% expressing strong opposition. A larger portion of Democrats (84%) oppose the war compared to Republicans (76%).
Voter sentiment suggests a belief in a long-term commitment. Sixty-four percent think the conflict will last beyond a year, marking an increase of 13 points since May. There’s a notable gap in expectations depending on one’s stance on the war; while 56% of supporters anticipate the conflict wrapping up in weeks or months, a striking 80% of opponents foresee it dragging on for at least a year.
Moreover, the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Iran seems bleak. About half of the respondents feel the U.S. won’t secure a deal, while 27% expect a favorable outcome and 25% a poor one.
This sense of skepticism is shared across party lines; around half of Democrats, Republicans, and independents lack faith in achieving a resolution with Iran. Interestingly, among those hopeful for a deal, Democrats are more pessimistic, with 20% inclined to think the deal would be unfavorable, whereas Republicans show a greater expectation for a positive outcome, by 27 points.
Only 34% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of Iran, which constitutes his lowest approval rating on this front, with 66% expressing disapproval.
While his overall rating remains consistent, underlying trends reveal a challenge. Currently, 39% approve of Trump’s overall performance—unchanged over three months—while 61% disapprove, marking a record high. Among these, 49% “strongly” disapprove, also a peak.
Historically, Trump’s highest approval ratings—49% for both approval and disapproval—were noted in April 2020. His present approval (39%) is comparable to former presidents Biden (40% in July 2022) and Obama (42% in July 2014) during midterm election years.
Support for Trump persists among MAGA Republicans (97% approval) and conservatives (72%). However, compared to last month, approval ratings have dipped among rural voters (by 7 points to 44%) and white voters (down 3 points to 41%).
Notably, there’s been a pronounced decline among non-MAGA Republicans, whose approval plummeted by 13 points to 51%, especially from a high of 70% at the start of Trump’s second term.
Trump’s ratings on economic issues are particularly low, with only 33% approving and 67% disapproving, and they’re even lower regarding inflation (27% approval, 73% disapproval).
Republicans Losing Ground on Immigration
Currently, voters are split over which party is better on immigration policy, with 50% favoring Democrats and 49% backing Republicans. This marks a significant shift from April, when Republicans enjoyed an 8-point lead. Women’s and voters under 45’s sentiments lean towards Democrats, whereas men and older voters tend to favor Republicans.
According to Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster, the narrative around immigration has shifted during the Biden administration, moving toward enforcement and border security opinions, which has diminished the Republican edge.
Though immigration remains Trump’s primary concern in polls, the numbers reflect negativity, with only 42% approving and 57% disapproving.
The approval rating for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) mirrors this trend, sitting at 41%. This is slightly down from 49% last September.
A vast majority of Democrats (90%) and independents (68%) disapprove of ICE, while a significant proportion of Republicans (79%) approve. Among these, 78% of Democrats and 50% of independents disapprove “strongly,” compared to 53% of Republicans who approve “strongly.”
Support for allowing all illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. is scarce, with only 7% endorsing this viewpoint (11% Democrats, 5% Independents, and 2% Republicans).
In contrast, 62% favor deporting individuals charged with crimes but allowing others to stay and potentially gain citizenship. This stance garners majority support among most demographics, except among Republicans (39%) and conservative groups (41%).
31% back the idea of deporting all illegal immigrants, with the highest support from MAGA Republicans at 68%.
When asked about their main concerns regarding illegal immigration, most voters cited the burden on government services (39%). Fewer mentioned crime (19%), job competition (14%), cultural changes (13%), or terrorism (10%).
Concerns tied to overloaded government programs resonate widely, particularly with college graduates, those in high-income households, suburban voters, and independents.
These findings also underscore ongoing divisions within the Republican Party itself. Approval for ICE stands at 91% among MAGA Republicans but drops to 59% among other Republicans, highlighting significant internal discrepancies.
Views on Trump’s immigration handling exhibit similar rifts, with 91% of MAGA Republicans approving compared to 63% of their non-MAGA counterparts. The support for deporting all illegal immigrants also shows a stark difference, with MAGA Republicans at 68% versus 41% among others.
The poll, directed by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, was conducted from July 17 to 20, 2026, involving interviews with 1,003 registered voters selected from national voter lists. The results included responses collected via live interviews or online surveys, with a margin of error at ±3 percentage points. The survey also oversampled 200 voters aged 18 to 29, leading to a sample size of 350 for that group, with a larger error margin. Demographic weights were applied for accuracy against the registered voter population.
