Polls Indicate New Hampshire Senate Race May Be Difficult for GOP to Win

Republicans Face Challenges in New Hampshire Senate Race

As the midterm elections approach, Republicans might encounter significant obstacles in their efforts to capture New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, according to recent polling data.

A poll from NHJournal/Praecones Analytica shows Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, viewed as the likely nominee, ahead of both former Republican Senator John Sununu and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown in direct matchups. Sununu, who is seeking a political comeback and has garnered support from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the Senate Republican campaign committee, is performing notably better in the polls than Brown. Interestingly, Brown, who previously ran unsuccessfully for this seat in 2014, trails Pappas significantly, with a margin of 28% to 45.8%. A notable portion of voters, over 25%, remain undecided. Despite entering the race prior to Sununu, Brown hasn’t managed to attract support from national Republican figures.

Pappas currently holds a slim lead over Sununu, who has about 35% support compared to Pappas’s 42%, with 22% of respondents still uncertain.

The poll further reveals that Democrats have an 11-point advantage on which party should lead the federal government, marking a six-point shift in favor of Democrats since July. In key battleground states, nearly 20% of voters remain undecided.

Additionally, the approval rating for President Trump in New Hampshire has dropped by 22 points, with only 32% of surveyed voters expressing approval of his performance in office.

Dr. Jonathan Klingler, a polling expert at Praecones Analytica, noted, “This represents the worst figures for Republicans in the last three state polls. Current trends suggest a decline in Republican support, particularly in New Hampshire.” He emphasized concerns about the implications of this shift for state Republicans.

Polls circulated by a group associated with Senate Republican leadership in September suggest that Sununu would be a more formidable candidate in the general election, though Trump has yet to publicly support him.

While Republicans are generally favored to retain their Senate majority in these midterms, attention is focused on defending incumbents in states like Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. The Senate campaign arm is also making efforts to flip Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Georgia, and Minnesota.

Thune expressed confidence about the current situation in a statement last December, noting that they are well-positioned to navigate this election cycle.