(The Center Square) – A new poll shows Ruben Gallego is leading Republican Kali Lake in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race.
Since losing the 2022 gubernatorial race, Lake has struggled to appeal to independents and undecided Republicans. A poll conducted by Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights gives Gallego a 7-point lead. The report also notes that Gallego's support among Democrats exceeds Lake's support among Republicans. Gallego is also leading with independents.
“Lake also struggled to gain a decisive advantage on many issues,” the NPI report said. “Among all voters, her only narrow leads were on immigration and inflation, two issues where Trump had significant advantages over Harris. On immigration, Lake is trusted by a majority of Republicans (78%), but on other key issues such as climate change, her support fades, with only 56% of Republicans trusting her. This gap highlights Lake's broader problem: her inability to rally strong, across-the-board support from her base.”
NPI vote The poll of 1,003 Arizona voters was conducted Aug. 12-16 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
The Fox News poll of just over 1,000 Arizona voters conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research showed Gallego leading by 13 points, with Democrats at 48% and Lake at 46%.
The poll also looked at Arizonans' support for the presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by just one point, and asked whether they supported an amendment to the Arizona Constitution to include the right to an abortion, with a majority (73%) saying yes.
After recent polls showed Gallego was the likely winner, Lake's campaign released a statement citing polls that showed the margin of victory was close and polls conducted by Lake's campaign that showed Lake ahead of Gallego.
“Recent polling data makes it clear this is a close race, with multiple surveys placing Kali Lake within the margin of error,” Lake said. “Polls showing either candidate with large leads are clearly at odds with Arizona's electoral history and current political climate. As voters learn more about the stark contrast between Kali Lake's proven leadership and Ruben Gallego's far-left policy record, I am confident they will choose the candidate who truly puts Arizona first.”
Lake has never held public office but is widely known in the polls as a longtime local television anchor, while Gallego served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013 and has served in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2015.
“Gallego is in a favorable position in this race, and in a polarized world, it's hard to imagine things being better for him than they have been over the past year,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of NPI. “Lake clearly has room to win over Republican and swing voters. The real question is whether she's the candidate who can scale that base.”
Gallego and Lake have agreed to a televised debate on Wednesday, October 9th at 6pm PST.
Gallego's office did not respond to a request for comment by press time.
