Without considering international and immigrant students, it’s estimated that enrollment in American universities could decline by 5 million by 2037.
A study from the American Policy Foundation suggests that, if international students are included, the count of undergraduates might dwindle to about two-thirds of its current size.
Furthermore, the number of graduate students is projected to fall by approximately 1.1 million, and this drop, alongside decreasing faculty numbers, is seen as “devastating” for numerous institutions.
Madeline Zavodny, an economics professor at the University of North Florida, conducted this research amid the Trump administration’s focus on cutting Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion (DEI) programs and other initiatives that clash with its objectives.
The administration has initiated cuts to federal grant funding for universities like Harvard and Columbia. Recently, President Trump halted Harvard’s capacity to enroll international students citing accusations of anti-Semitic actions.
Some international students across various universities have had their student visas revoked and have faced detention by immigration officials, with many being slated for deportation.
While there were slight reductions in the international student population during Trump’s first term, these changes are minor compared to what is anticipated, according to Zabodny.
“It feels like a very abrupt and startling shift,” she noted.
Trends in U.S. University Enrollment
Data from Best Colleges indicates that from 2024 to 2025, 19.1 million students were enrolled in U.S. universities, including around 16 million undergraduates.
However, the composition of these numbers is shifting, influenced by declining birth rates in the U.S. and a growing trend of American students opting out of college. Projections show that the number of U.S.-born students in universities could drop by up to 15% from now until 2029.
Interestingly, the more pronounced admissions decline actually involves U.S. students.
The Institute of International Education reported that there were 880,000 international students in U.S. universities during 2023-2024, an increase of 230,000 (or 36%) since 2010-11.
Moreover, students of immigrant backgrounds in the U.S. rose from 15% to 24% during this same period.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic initially hindered international student arrivals, numbers have improved recently, boosting enrollment.
International and immigrant students usually cover their tuition, fees, and living expenses entirely, making their presence crucial for filling seats in classrooms and maintaining universities’ financial health.
According to the International Association of Educators, international students contributed $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy between 2023 and 2024, supporting over 378,000 jobs.
After Trump’s administration assumed leadership, both universities and international students have faced significant challenges. Zavodny warns of severe repercussions for university registrations and financial stability.
Joseph Edrow, appointed by the Trump administration to lead U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, recently expressed intentions to eliminate the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows international students to work post-graduation.
The OPT program has been an appealing aspect for students, contributing to their interest in studying in the U.S. If this program were to disappear, Zavodny believes the financial viability of universities could be at serious risk.
Moreover, Trump’s plans to abolish birthright citizenship and completely close southern borders are likely to adversely affect college enrollments as international students reconsider their plans for education here.
“It’s quite alarming to think you might invest in a U.S. university only to face deportation before earning your degree,” Zavodny remarked.
Forecasting Declines in International Students
In addition to an overall decline in basic enrollments, the study also indicates that if international students don’t enroll in the U.S., undergraduate numbers could decrease by 2% over the next 12 years, with graduate student numbers potentially dropping by 11%.
If immigration continues to decline under Trump’s border policies, these numbers could worsen by another 1 or 2%. Likewise, if current immigrants depart, undergraduate enrollment could further decline by 6.6%, while graduate populations might drop by 12%.
If U.S.-born children of immigrants decide against attending American institutions, undergraduate enrollment could see a decline of 23%, with graduate numbers falling by 16% by 2037.
Zavodny believes the anticipated decline in international students—stemming from changes introduced when Trump took office—may require universities to adapt their admissions processes to recognize students who might not have been considered a decade ago.
Looking ahead, if international student populations do not recover, the long-term implications for these institutions could be dire, she added.
“This trend could develop into a significant disadvantage for many universities,” she concluded.
