On Thursday, representatives from Ukraine and Russia are set to meet in person for the first time in over three years, though Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending.
Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky had invited Putin to a face-to-face meeting in Istanbul, but the Russian team consists of lower-level officials.
The significance of the initial direct discussions may be diminished by Putin’s absence, especially given the failure of prior negotiations since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
Since the conflict began, tens of thousands have lost their lives, and Russia now controls about one-fifth of Ukraine, marking the most severe conflict in Europe since World War II.
In response to a call for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from Ukraine and European nations, Putin suggested Istanbul meetings on May 15.
While Zelensky agreed to this, he emphasized that if Putin doesn’t personally attend, it could imply a lack of genuine interest in peace.
“This is his war… so negotiations should be with him,” Zelensky remarked.
The Kremlin delegation, which will include Vladimir Medinsky, a close aide to the former Culture Minister, is expected to handle the negotiations. Notably absent from the Kremlin’s designated negotiators are Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, all of whom were rumored to be involved previously.
European Sanctions Warning
Medinsky is viewed as potentially influential in discussions regarding Russia’s historical claims to Ukrainian territory.
The other members of the Russian negotiating team are Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Garzin, Deputy Director Alexander Fomin, and Igor Kostukov from Russia’s GRU Military Intelligence Bureau.
European leaders have indicated that if the Istanbul talks yield no results, new sanctions against Russia will likely follow.
As the meeting approaches, Zelensky mentioned that Ukraine would decide its next “step” depending on the representatives from Moscow.
“Ukraine is ready for all forms of negotiations, and we’re not afraid of meetings. Tomorrow – in Turkey,” he said. “I’m eager to see who arrives from Russia to determine Ukraine’s course of action.”
Russia continues to assert that it is addressing the “root cause” of the conflict, including vague justification for its invasion based on Ukraine’s “unbiased” stance and the need for demilitarization.
The Kremlin has also reiterated that Ukraine must relinquish territories occupied by Russian forces.
Although Kyiv acknowledges that recovering territory might rely on diplomatic channels, Zelensky clarifies that he won’t concede recognition of any land as Russian.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to be in Istanbul on Friday, having met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andri Sibiga at a NATO meeting in Turkey earlier this week.
Moreover, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a potential mediation role, expressing that he believes Putin would prefer to meet with him.
“If I weren’t there, I wouldn’t know he (Putin) would be there,” Trump told journalists on his Middle East tour. “If we can end the war, I’m considering it,” he said.
