Some time ago, I pointed out that Netanyahu and Singwar share a vested interest in prolonging the conflict. It’s fascinating to see how, upon reflection, the analysis still holds true.
Since October 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has outlined his objectives, though they seem to shift frequently. Initially, he spoke about “clearing Hamas” and achieving “total victory,” phrases that lacked clarity. The idea of “Hostage Return” only emerged later, once it became a pressing issue.
Fast forward twenty-two months, and it seems that the return of hostages is no longer a priority for Netanyahu. A significant portion, around 74% of the Israeli public now backs a trade for hostages and a conclusion to the fighting.
Netanyahu has struggled to articulate viable “next day” strategies, or even to set up conditions that would facilitate such plans.
After the controversial Trump plan surfaced in March, which suggested relocating all Gazans while a so-called “Riviera” was envisioned, Netanyahu expanded his war objectives to include the removal of all Gazans. Although Trump has distanced himself from that idea, Netanyahu and his ultranationalist coalition continue to entertain a vision of a Gaza without Palestinians.
Consequently, Netanyahu remains engaged in combat, largely counter to the warnings of Eyal Zamir, the chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces. In June, Zamir cautioned that further actions could jeopardize hostages and would be ineffective militarily. Recently, it seems he even implored the cabinet to formulate clear political strategies, but all Netanyahu and his team have proposed is merging Gaza with other regions.
During this time, Israel’s reputation as a pariah state has only worsened. Netanyahu seems to believe he is above consequences, continuing a conflict that results in rising Israeli casualties and strengthens Hamas, all driven by personal motivations that lack broader objectives.
First, his coalition is reliant on far-right ultranationalists who threaten backlash against any hostage trades or efforts to cease hostilities. Second, Netanyahu is acutely aware that he is likely to lose the next election, leading to a potential collapse of his power. Lastly, if he loses his grip, he risks resuming a court trial related to corruption charges that had been postponed due to the war. He could face imprisonment.
His most favorable scenario would be to sustain the conflict, hoping to deflect blame for the events of October 7th. Remarkably, fewer than 40% of people currently trust Netanyahu.
But we shouldn’t overlook Hamas. They, too, have a vested interest in continuing the fight. Pressure from Trump could lead Hamas to consider ending the conflict in exchange for the return of Israeli hostages, but they also have leaders who are keen on survival.
Many founding members of Hamas have been killed since the war began, yet the new leadership seems capable of maintaining control through financial incentives and intimidation tactics.
As of October 7, Hamas had around 30,000 fighters organized into several brigades and specialized forces. An estimate suggests they possess about 30,000 rockets, which indeed gives them a significant standing in military terms—more than some European armies.
By August 2024, Israel claimed to have neutralized 21 out of Hamas’s 24 battalions, reportedly resulting in around 20,000 fighter fatalities, though this number is entangled with overall Palestinian casualties. Yet, more recent reports indicate that Hamas has managed to replenish its ranks since a ceasefire was broken in March 2025.
With the majority of Gazans being younger than 30 and a struggling economy, many are searching for ways to support their families—making it easy for Hamas to recruit.
Hamas is also aware that Israel’s situation on the international stage declines daily due to the humanitarian crisis and extreme suffering—regardless of their role in exacerbating the situation, this tragedy strains Israel as well, with Hamas finding ways to exploit these dynamics.
Moreover, countries like France, the UK, and Canada recently expressed intentions to recognize Palestinian governance without ending the conflict, which implies a shift of authority away from Hamas.
The massacre carried out by Hamas on October 7 was executed with an understanding that it would lead to severe Israeli retaliation, causing immense devastation in Gaza.
Feeling the pressure on his political future, Netanyahu appears willing to risk both Israel’s standing and the safety of Israeli soldiers to maintain power. Similarly, Hamas aims to keep the conflict alive, even as it wreaks havoc on its own people and threatens the potential for free elections.
In this turmoil, both Gazans and Israelis endure ongoing suffering.
