Even though President Donald Trump’s overall polling numbers have dipped, his approval rating among Republicans remains remarkably high. His influence within the Republican Party, which has undergone significant changes over the last decade, is undeniably strong, particularly in the primaries.
“Support for Trump is crucial in any primary,” noted Jesse Hunt, a seasoned Republican strategist. Matt Gorman, an experienced consultant, echoed this sentiment, calling it “an undeniable force.” So, what approach should Republicans facing primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates take to ensure their re-election?
In two prominent cases this year, incumbents fighting to hold their positions are attempting to demonstrate they still have the president’s backing.
Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is encountering challenges in the upcoming primary from two Republicans, Rep. Julia Letlow and former Rep. John Fleming, who currently serves as the state treasurer. Trump’s endorsement of Letlow earlier this year has certainly added to the competitive atmosphere.
Cassidy was one of the few Senate Republicans who voted to convict Trump after the events of January 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to reverse the election outcome. Although Trump was acquitted, Cassidy’s stance put him at odds with many in his party.
However, since the beginning of Trump’s second term, Cassidy has aligned himself with the president’s policies and endorsed his candidates. In a campaign ad following Trump’s endorsement of Letlow, Cassidy, who is also a doctor, promoted a bill he authored aimed at increasing penalties for felons involved in fentanyl trafficking. He claimed, “President Trump said this is the most important bill he will sign this year,” alongside an image of Trump.
In another campaign spot, it was emphasized that “Cassidy worked with President Trump on tax cuts,” with visuals of the president and Cassidy prominently displayed.
Meanwhile, in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, Representative Thomas Massie is facing a challenge from Trump supporter Ed Gullane. Notably, Massie has been vocal about his criticisms of Trump, especially concerning the Epstein scandal and foreign policy positions. However, Gullane, a former Navy SEAL, has the backing of Trump’s allies who are investing significantly to target Massie.
Recently, Massie highlighted an old photo of himself and Trump smiling together in a campaign ad, perhaps as a way to leverage Trump’s influence for his own campaign.
In Texas, veteran Republican Sen. John Cornyn finds himself in a tight primary runoff against state Attorney General John Paxton, a MAGA supporter. While Trump has not officially weighed in on this contest, Cornyn has made a point of highlighting his support for Trump during his campaign. His advertisements tend to portray a strong bond with the president.
Interestingly, a narrator in an ad pointed out that Cornyn “had his back,” featuring a photo of the two giving a thumbs up together. In another clip, Trump was shown expressing appreciation for Cornyn and fellow Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, reinforcing the connection.
Neither Cornyn nor Paxton is formally endorsed by Trump, but Cassidy and Massie’s communications seem to gloss over their opponents’ connections to him, presenting an incomplete picture.
Hunt cautions that attempting to claim a winning stance when it may not be accurate could backfire, especially if Trump takes issue with such portrayals. “If you act like you’re winning when you’re not, that could jeopardize your campaign,” he remarked.
