Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is pushing ahead with plans for a vote this week on President Trump’s major legislative proposal, despite hesitation from some GOP members and skepticism about the bill’s prospects.
Republicans indicated that Thune, along with other Senate leaders, believe the bill could be voted on before the July 4 recess, although many colleagues have expressed concerns about its potential effects on Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and renewable energy initiatives.
Thune is facing pressure from a conservative faction led by Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) to make significant budget cuts. Fiscal conservatives like Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) aim to expand initiatives under the Affordable Care Act while reducing the federal contribution to state Medicaid spending, which would impact renewable energy tax policies.
The mix of criticisms surrounding Thune’s meeting, along with a tight timeline, has led many to doubt whether the Senate can deliver the votes as promised this week.
“I think it’s unlikely we’ll have a vote by July 4th,” one source commented. “There’s just too much work left to do to secure 51 votes in that time.”
Senate Republicans cleared a significant hurdle over the weekend with a report from the Tax Committee stating that extending 26 provisions from the 2017 Trump tax cuts could be treated as a continuation of existing policies, which wouldn’t be considered as adding to future deficits.
If this endorsement holds, Republicans could solidify the 2017 tax cuts as permanent after review by senators.
Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), a leading figure on the Budget Committee, accused Republicans of employing “budget tricks” to mask the potential $4 trillion in new debt from extending these provisions.
Over the weekend, Senate Republicans and Democratic aides planned discussions focused on bills related to 2017 tax cuts, new tax proposals, renewable energy credits, and cuts to Medicaid.
As Democrats celebrated a victory on Sunday, they managed to block provisions included by House Republicans that would restrict the judiciary’s capacity to issue injunctions against executive orders.
This new language would have made it tougher for plaintiffs to seek emergency court orders against the administration, as they would need to pay hefty bond amounts upfront.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (NY) praised the decision, suggesting that if these changes became law, Trump could “ignore court orders without consequence.”
Democrats succeeded in removing several notable provisions from the bill, including cuts to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, created after the 2008 financial crisis.
They also managed to impose restrictions on Congressional lawmakers aiming to reduce Federal Reserve salaries and oversight of public company auditing.
Changes to the SNAP program, which aimed to increase state fees, were also excluded—a decision that might have benefitted influential GOP senators like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine.
House Republicans from New York, New Jersey, and California are also raising concerns about the Senate bill, particularly regarding a proposal to permanently cap the state and local tax (SALT) deduction at $10,000. There’s opposition to Senator Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) plan to increase it to $40,000.
Senator Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) mentioned that the bill’s various components are under discussion.
He stated that Senate Republican leaders aim to finalize a SALT cap agreement with House Republicans prior to bringing the legislation to the floor, to ensure it can pass through both chambers.
Senator John Husted (R-Ohio) expressed optimism about the bill’s progress, stating it’s on track for completion next week.
“We need everyone to be ready to complete this,” he remarked.
He highlighted that Senate Republican negotiators are “working through rural hospital concerns” and aim to address these issues thoroughly.
However, insiders familiar with the discussions regarding Medicaid cuts have indicated that progress is slow.
“They understand this is a crucial issue, and it’s quite sensitive,” one source explained about the impasse over funding cuts to Medicaid.
Collins has suggested the establishment of a health provider relief fund to aid hospitals, nursing homes, and community health centers facing budget reductions, advocating for “numerous changes” to the bill.
At the same time, Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) expressed worries about requiring low-income Americans to face higher out-of-pocket healthcare costs, while Murkowski pointed out that stricter eligibility requirements could be challenging to enforce in Alaska.
Several Republican senators and aides are doubtful that Thune can secure the necessary 50 votes to pass the bill by the end of this week.
Even though Senate Republicans hold a majority of 53 seats, only a few votes can shift the outcome, particularly with Vice President JD Vance able to break ties.
Johnson noted there seems to be “no way” to finalize the Senate bill by July 4th, mentioning that Scott and Lee are prepared to stall the bill unless more substantial spending cuts are made.
He aims to push the budget resolution process to advance another spending reduction proposal before the 2026 midterms, also calling for an enforcement mechanism to ensure such measures move forward.
One idea proposed is to divide the $5 trillion increase in the debt limit into smaller increments, which could trigger discussions regarding additional spending reductions for the upcoming year.
“What will motivate us to revisit this?” Johnson posed, stating that discussions with Thune about addressing the further deficit are ongoing.
He added that Thune needs his support “right now.”
“It’s too soon,” he remarked regarding a potential vote on the bill next week. “The ball has been in Senate court for two weeks… I need more time to examine this.”
