Republican candidate Tim Sheehy holds a commanding eight-point lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana's U.S. Senate race, according to a new AARP Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll.
In opinion polls, Published On Thursday, Sheehy led the overall vote with 49 percent support, while Tester has 41 percent support. Another 4 percent back Libertarian Party candidate Syd Dowd and the Green Party's Michael Downey has 1 percent support. Four percent are undecided.
If Sheehy and Tester were to face off in a two-way contest, Sheehy would win a 51 percent majority and Tester would rise to 45 percent, implying that Dowd and Downey would work against Tester. In this scenario, 3 percent is at stake.
Sheehy has a strong favorable rating, with 48 percent rating him favorably and 45 percent rating him unfavorably. Tester is nine points behind in favorability ratings, with 52 percent of respondents rating Sheehy unfavorably and 43 percent rating him favorably. Tester's approval rating is four percentage points lower, with 50 percent rating him unfavorably and 46 percent rating his performance favorably.
The poll was conducted among 600 Montana voters from Aug. 25-29, 2024, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Montana's Senate race is one of the Republicans' best opportunities to flip a blue seat red in the 2024 election cycle as they mount an offensive to retake the Senate majority. Democrats and their allied independents currently hold a 51-49 majority, but the landscape for the 2024 Senate elections is heavily favorable to Republicans.
Republicans have a realistic chance of recapturing 10 of the 23 Democratic-held seats in this election, but Democrats' best chance of recapturing Republican-held seats is up in the air. The left's best chances are the two seats held by Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.), showing just how unlikely it is for Democrats to make gains.
With Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WVa.) heading for retirement and Gov. Jim Justice (R-WVa.) the front-runner to win a seat, Republicans are on track to pick up 50 seats if Scott and Cruz hang on. From there, a Sheehy win in Montana would put Republicans at 51, with good opportunities to expand beyond that, including races in Republican-held states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan.
