Republicans are alarmed that former President Trump's support among female voters has slipped in the polls and his efforts to stop the bleeding appear to be faltering.
Republicans are no strangers to gender disparities between the parties in presidential elections, but now they're facing a “gap” between male and female voters.
Republican pollster Whit Ayers said it would be “hard” for Trump to chip away at Harris's large lead among female voters.
“The real challenge for the Republican Party now is whether it can increase its male support enough to overcome its lack of female support. Given the prominence of the abortion issue in this year's election and Trump's past comments about women, traditional gender differences could become a divide between men and women,” he warned.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday found that Harris has a significant lead over Trump among women, 54 percent to 41 percent, while Trump has a five-point lead among men, 51 percent to 46 percent.
Of particular concern to Republicans is that the ABC/Ipsos poll showed that Ms Harris' support among female voters has increased significantly since the run-up to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, when she led Mr Trump by just six points among women.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday also showed Ms Harris leading by 13 points among female voters, 49 percent to 13 percent, while Mr Trump held a smaller lead among male voters.
Both polls showed Harris leading Trump nationally by 4 percentage points.
Trump has sought to win over college-educated and suburban women by softening his stance on abortion and supporting free IVF treatment.
But those proposals have drawn pushback from pro-life conservatives, and Republican strategists are skeptical of how much influence they will have among female voters who have already turned away from Trump.
“When Biden was still in the race,” one Republican Senate official said, the Trump campaign “thought they didn't need suburban women to win.” But with Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, the political calculations have shifted dramatically.
“I don't know what to say to Trump to stop this freefall. He's tossing around ideas about IVF, but it's a pretty deep hole,” the source warned, expressing skepticism that Trump would “soften his act” to better appeal to female voters.
Trump's problems with female voters are also evident in the Senate Republican Conference: The two most prominent women in the Senate, Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), have said they will not vote for Trump. They would be key swing votes in the next Congress if Republicans regain control of the Senate.
Last week, President Trump criticized Florida's six-week abortion ban as too strict, but quickly backtracked after receiving heavy criticism from his supporters. President Trump backtracked after expressing opposition to a Florida statewide ballot initiative that would have legalized abortion up to the point where the fetus is viable.
He made another attempt to make amends with female voters by saying he supports expanding access to in vitro fertilization treatments that would be paid for by the federal government and insurance companies.
One of his allies in Congress, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, pushed back, warning that asking insurance companies to pay for free care would set a bad precedent.
Ayers noted that Trump and other Republican candidates maintain their advantage among male voters.
But the importance of abortion rights and women's access to medical treatments such as IVF appears to be galvanizing female voters and threatening to upend the Republican Party's traditional dominance over men.
Ayers said Trump was clearly trying to close the gap with women voters, and predicted, “We'll see if that's effective when we look at the polls.”
“Donald Trump is very acutely aware of the power of the abortion issue in a post-Dobbs world,” he said, referring to the Supreme Court's 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Group that overturned the constitutional right to an abortion.
Republican pollster Ayers said Harris' growing lead among female voters reflects the impact of Trump's past comments that have alienated women and “the continuing importance of the abortion issue.”
Some Republican strategists are urging Trump to downplay or avoid the abortion rights debate, which has riven the party apart, and instead focus on issues important to women and where Republicans have a fundamental advantage over Democrats: the economy and inflation.
Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist and former Senate leadership aide, said Trump “needs to start talking about issues that matter to women voters, like the wallet issues that affect families.”
He said he would steer the campaign in a more favorable direction “by talking about food and energy prices and my plans to reduce costs.”
The Trump campaign appears to have begun doing just that in recent days.
“Kamala Harris' dangerously liberal policies have left women economically impoverished and far less safe than they were four years ago under President Trump. Kamalanomics has driven up the costs of groceries, gas, baby formula, mortgages and rent, making life harder for working mothers and their families,” said Caroline Leavitt, national spokesperson for the Trump campaign.
The ABC/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump by 13 points among female voters and also showed Americans continue to have more confidence in Trump when it comes to the economy and inflation.
The poll found that Trump has an eight-point lead over Harris on those two issues, and a nine-point lead on immigration and the situation on the US-Mexico border.
The Trump campaign also criticized Harris' record on immigration and border security policy as vice president on Tuesday.
“As Border Commissioner, Kamala Harris has opened our southern border to illegal criminals who have brutally raped, murdered and assaulted innocent women across this country. Women deserve a president who will secure our border, rid our neighborhoods of violent criminals, and build an economy that families can thrive in. And President Trump will do just that,” Trump campaign spokesman Leavitt said.
On the issue of abortion rights, Bonjean said, “The train has already left the station.” [and] It was a really wide-ranging discussion.”
“The focus on IVF was helpful, but the days of indecision over Florida's abortion ban was not,” he said.
Instead, he said, Trump could “win back some of his support” among women by talking about everyday economic issues that resonate with women.
“Every vote counts, and if Trump has a negative impact on the vote margin, that could have an impact,” he added, advising Trump to avoid divisive topics that tend to alienate female voters, such as the personal attacks on Harris that appear to have backfired.
Trump has faced strong criticism from within his party and has been accused of launching sexist attacks after questioning Harris' identity as a black woman and criticising her intelligence in an overly heavy-handed manner.
Brandon Scholz, a Republican strategist based in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, called abortion a “top five issue” in his home state.
She said how the gender gap will affect Wisconsin's presidential election will depend largely on which groups of voters are most enthusiastic.
“Is there an enthusiasm gap? That's the next thing I'll be looking at,” he said. “I've seen the gender gap in a number of polls, and I was surprised that it was as big as it was.”
“I don't know what's going to tighten it up,” he said.
Scholz said Trump's issues with female voters date back to the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
“Four years ago and eight years ago, Trump made a number of statements that drove away suburban women, soccer moms, Republican women. I don't think they would have voted for Trump four years ago,” he said.
