Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot accept that his incompetent military failed to invade Ukraine.
So he is desperately trying to tell his people that they are already at war with the West.
First, Putin claimed that his invasion was to “denazify” the Kiev-based Ukrainian government, even though President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish.
And as his three-day invasion began to drag on for months, his war was recast as a “holy crusade” against the “forces of Satan.”
As the conflict approaches its third year, President Putin must find new arguments to placate civilians suffering from the horrific death toll.
“Ukraine itself is not our enemy,” Putin told soldiers visiting a hospital for the wounded and wounded. “Those who want to destroy the Russian state and achieve the strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield are mainly in the West.”
President Putin therefore sought to reframe his war as Russia's eternal ideological struggle.
“The point is not that they (Western countries) are helping our enemies. They are our enemies,” he said. “They're taking matters into their own hands. That's what it's all about. Unfortunately, this has been the case for centuries and remains true today.”
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, believe Putin's comments are a sign that the war is far from over.
Rather, his words reflect “an effort to create the conditions for a permanent build-up of the Russian military and to justify high sacrifices on the battlefield.”
“Putin's comments may suggest that he is preparing a long-term justification for mobilizing the military and keeping it engaged in combat to permanently defend Russia's sovereignty vis-à-vis the West. It is concluded that it is expensive.
Blood is expensive. But what is that product?
“Dealing with Russia has been their (Western countries') goal since time immemorial, but we will do it more quickly,” Putin assured the injured during a hospital visit.
“And the most important thing we have…is the unity of our people and society. How important is your work on the battlefield in the armed struggle for our country and our future? Because I understand what it is.”
Russian analysts believe this is the gist of Putin's latest spin.
“The Ukraine war has created an entirely new political reality for the Kremlin and prompted a renewal of the ideological basis for Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule.” Carnegie Endowment Senior Fellow Andrei Kolesnikov.
President Putin now emphasizes “traditional spiritual and moral values.”
And totalitarian governments “need a certain degree of self-justification,” Kolesnikov says.
But Putin's previous declarations to “denazify” Ukraine and “fight the forces of Satan” are no longer enough.
A recently declassified U.S. intelligence report estimates Russian casualties (dead and wounded) at about 315,000 since the war began in February 2022.
Ukraine's losses remain classified.
However, they are also considered catastrophically high.
“Such high casualties for small territorial gains prompts President Putin to offer a strong ideological justification for continuing his chosen long war with Russia. ISW analysts agree. “Ukraine does not need such a distorted justification for the huge losses and suffering that Putin's aggression is inflicting on its people, even if Ukraine's military operations did not bring the desired results. is an existential threat not only for Russia but also for Ukraine.
unassailable ego
“Putin's regime introduced a permanent government and a highly personalized, semi-totalitarian style of governance,” Kolesnikov argues. “Such a regime needs a fundamental ideological precept and historical justification for its despotism, all of which must be disseminated to the masses.”
It also explains the constant stream of outlandish and implausible claims made by Kremlin propagandists.
“The message promoted by the leading ideologues of the Putin regime is increasingly resembling a caricature,” Kolesnikov said. “In fact, the less reliable the information, the more willing Putin's ideologues will be to use it.”
One recent accusation by Nikolai Patrushev, long-time head of President Putin's Security Council, is that the “Anglo-Saxon elite” believes that Siberia is the safest place from the imminent eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano in the western United States. He said he believed it was an evacuation site. And that, Patrushev argues, is why the West wants to invade Russia.
Other such unusual claims include that Poland has secret territorial plans for Belarus and Ukraine.
Finland then wanted to occupy large areas of northern Russia.
However, none of this conceals the fact that Russia is a state that has invaded its neighboring countries.
“This pattern is selfish, but also clumsy and implausible,” Kolesnikov says.
“All this may seem like empty political talk, but such claims serve several purposes at once. They are simultaneously a means of communicating an ideology (and) a means of defining and creating it. In the hands of the Kremlin, ideology under Putin is both a political strategy and a product of its operations.”
AP
The Kremlin relies on narratives created to support slogans such as “We are not like everyone else!” “We have a special DNA!” “We are at war with the ungodly and the enemy on our western borders!” “We are reclaiming our ancient territories and We must protect ourselves by liberating ourselves!”
“In short, the best defense for a beleaguered Russian state is offense,” Kolesnikov says.
signs and omens
“They (Western countries) have been cultivating the Kiev regime for quite some time in order to provoke this very conflict,” Putin declared. “Unfortunately for us, they have accomplished this. They started this conflict and are trying to accomplish their objective, which is to fight Russia.”
ISW analysts believe his goal is to convince the military and the public that an unexpected successful resistance by Ukraine was expected.
That the battle was always against Europe and America.
And that the fight must continue.
Former New Zealand diplomat Ian Hill argues in The Interpreter of the Lowy Institute Putin is expressing new confidence, backed by support from allies in China and North Korea, and opposition from the US Republican Party to Ukraine's rearmament.
“The war in Ukraine may be stalled for now, but President Putin believes it is going Russia's way,” he wrote. “Economic stability and strict domestic regulations, reinforced by rampant propaganda, ensured political calm within Russia. Surveys show that the Ukraine war is becoming increasingly unpopular among the Russian public.” However, there is no indication yet that this threatens the regime's secure hold on power.”
President Putin recently claimed that the Russian government has recruited an additional 486,000 people to the army in 2023.
He says he intends to equip and train in time for a new major offensive in 2024.
His biggest challenge is to motivate his people, as international sanctions have failed and the economy has been crippled.
“Unable to chart a viable path for Russia's future and losing the competition between the so-called global West and a rising global East centered on China, the Putin regime has been unable to abandon its leadership ambitions. “No,” Kolesnikov concluded. “Instead, it's channeling all of its energy into a return to its storied past.”
