Analysts and western security services have emphasized the poor status of the Russian Navy because the Mediterranean toes are well balanced and emphasizes the poor condition of the Russian Navy, as the toes of the Mediterranean have been balanced.
55 -year -old Kildin I was involved in trouble on the coast of Syria last Thursday. Seeing the flame and thick black smoke swirl from the funnel, it shows that two black balls are lifted to the mast, and the crew is no longer controlling the container.
The ship notified Miramoon, a nearby Togo freight cargo ship, was unable to control at least 2 km away and warned. The Russian crew gathered on the deck behind Kildin and found a lifesaving boat, but did not seek help. After fighting for 5 hours, Kildin resumed the engine and proceeded again.
According to a west security service, the ship was in the east region of the Moscow allies Bashal Al Assad, autumn and autumn, and in the east region to monitor events in Syria. control.
The western information streaks that Kildin's fire revealed that the Russian marine's presence was devastated and confused after blowing off flames two months ago with Gorscov in Russia's missile frigate ships. did. At the same time, Kildin was suffering, and at the same time, the other two Russian Navy ships, land boat Ivan Glenn, and Alexander Otracovsky had temporarily drifted without controlling navigation.
Michael Kofman, a Russian army expert for the International Peace, said that the Russian Navy's disaster was not new, not limited to the Mediterranean.
“The Russian Navy has historically struggled with maintenance and preparation issues. Fire is not unusual. The business has definitely hit the elderly Russian fleet, but this has sufficient maintenance and support facilities. No, “said Coffman.
If Damascus's new ruler Hayat Tahalil Al Sham (HTS) takes the use of the Tartus base from Russia, these problems can be much more serious. So far, Moscow has maintained his toes at the Air Force bases in Syria, Tartus and Kumeimim after Assad, but the long -term intention of the new government has helped to maintain the Assad administration for decades. It is unknown about power.
last week, HTS canceled the 2019 contract With Russian companies, the management of Tartus commercial ports would end and Moscow would have a $ 500 million hub to export Russian agricultural products to a wider Middle East. It was a bad sign for the Navy, said Siders Kausal, a senior researcher in the Royal United Service Institute (Rusi) in London.
“The commercial arrangement cancellation is written on the Navy's wall. Considering how much commercial and strategic status have been reached,” Kausal said.
He argued that the loss of Tartus would turn the chronic problem of the Russian fleet into a crisis.
“The Russian Navy was not actually built for endurance after the Cold War,” said Kausal. “They have built a small container that can be built more quickly and packed the missiles very heavily. It is very convenient if you protect your own coastal sea. [over longer distances] The smaller the container, the more serious maintenance issues. “
He added as follows: “This was a problem for the Russians, and it was always a problem, but the problem is much more important in considering the potential loss of Tartus.”
Moscow is looking for alternatives in the Mediterranean, but all options have problems. RUSI paper This month is a visiting Fellow of the Research Institute by Kaushal and CMDR Edward Black, former British Navy Mining Clearance Diving Officer.
Algeria is a long -standing Russian ally, but Moscow's activities in Mali, a Wagner Group's MERC soldiers, are driving the wedge between the two countries.
In Sudan's civil war, Russia switched loyalty from a rapid support forces to the Sudan army last year. However, access to the Mediterranean has relying on the use of the Suez Canal, and negotiations with Sudan authorities are increasing.
The third option is the two ports, Torbouque and Bengjazi under the upset of Russian Support's General Halifa Hufftar, and there are already 2,000 Russian MERC soldiers in the area.
RUSI's research suggests that the Russian base in Libya is the most likely to replace Tartus, but will point out that Russian's sick Mediterranean fleet will be a hostage of Hufftar and his future allies. did. 。
