China has built a land-based prototype nuclear reactor for a large surface warship, a new analysis of satellite images and Chinese government documents provided to a news agency shows. This is a clear sign that progress is being made. press.
China's navy is already the world's largest in terms of numbers and is rapidly modernizing. Adding a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the fleet would be a major step toward realizing the United States' ambitions for a true “blue water” force capable of operating in waters far from China as global challenges to the United States increase.
Tong Chao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC, said: “A nuclear-powered aircraft carrier would put China in the exclusive position of a first-class naval power, a group currently limited to the United States and France. ”
“For China's leadership, these developments will symbolize national prestige, stimulate domestic nationalism, and enhance the country's global image as a leading power.”
Researchers at California's Middlebury Institute of International Studies said they made the discovery while surveying a mountainous area outside Leshan, southwestern China's Sichuan province, where China uses He said it was suspected that he was building a nuclear reactor.
Instead, they concluded that China was building a prototype reactor for large warships. Leshan's project is called the Longwei, or Dragon Might, project, and is also referred to as the nuclear power development project in documents.
Neither the Chinese Ministry of Defense nor the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to requests for comment.
Satellite imagery and public documents helped identify potential airline projects
There have been rumors for some time that China is planning to build a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, but research by the Middlebury research team shows that China is working on developing a nuclear-powered propulsion system for carrier-sized surface warships. was confirmed for the first time.
“The Leshan nuclear reactor prototype is the first hard evidence that China is actually developing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury College and one of the researchers on the project. he said. “Operating nuclear-powered aircraft carriers is an exclusive club, and China intends to join it.”
Based on satellite images and public documents such as project bids, personnel files, and environmental impact studies, as well as complaints from residents about construction noise and excessive dust, they found that the Navy propulsion prototype reactor was It was concluded that it was built approximately 70 meters into the mountains of Mucheng Town. A few miles southwest of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province.
The reactor, which procurement documents indicate will be operational soon, will be housed in a new facility built on the site known as Base 909, according to the analysis. , the facility houses six other nuclear reactors that are in operation, decommissioned, or under construction.
The facility is under the control of the China Atomic Energy Research Institute, a subsidiary of the China Atomic Energy Corporation, and is responsible for research and testing of nuclear reactor engineering.
China's 701 Research Institute (official name: China Ship Research and Design Center), which is in charge of aircraft carrier development, has announced that it has procured a nuclear power development project and nuclear reactor equipment “intended for installation on large surface warships” for the project. Document showing. The “National Defense Designation” helped lead to the conclusion that the giant nuclear reactor was a prototype for a next-generation aircraft carrier.
From 2020 to 2023, satellite magicians showed the destruction of houses and the construction of water intake infrastructure connected to the reactor site. According to the steam generator and turbine pump contracts, the project includes a pressurized water reactor with a secondary circuit, the profile of which is consistent with a naval propulsion reactor, the researchers say. states.
The environmental impact report describes the Longwei project as a “defense-related construction project” and classified as “classified.”
“Unless China is developing a nuclear-powered cruiser, which was pursued only by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, a nuclear-powered project would definitely refer to an effort to develop a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier,” the researchers wrote in their paper. I'm writing. A detailed 19-page report on the findings was shared exclusively with The Associated Press.
Jamie Whithorn, an analyst at the Oslo Nuclear Project who was not involved in the study and reviewed the findings, said Middlebury's team had made a “compelling argument”.
“Based on the identification report, co-location with other naval nuclear reactor facilities, and associated construction activity, the Longwei project is likely housed at Base 909 and is likely to be located in the identified buildings. I think I can say that there is,” she said.
But the study provides no clues about when China's nuclear-powered aircraft carriers will be built and operational, she said.
Sarah Lederman, senior analyst at the Open Nuclear Network, a program of the Pax Sapiens Foundation, a US-based NGO, said the findings were “carefully conducted and thoroughly researched. ” he said.
“Given the evidence presented here, we see that a convincing case has been made that China appears to be working on building nuclear-powered propulsion systems for naval surface ships (possibly aircraft carriers) at this location. ” said Vienna-based Lederman. He was not involved in the Middlebury study.
Pursuing a nuclear aircraft carrier
China's first aircraft carrier, commissioned in 2012, was a repurposed Soviet ship, and the second was built in China but based on a Soviet design. The ships, named Liaoning and Shandong, use a so-called “ski jump” type launch system, with ramps installed at the end of short runways to help planes take off.
Launched in 2022, the Type 003 Fujian Airlines is the country's third aircraft carrier and the first indigenously designed and built. It uses an electromagnetic launch system similar to that developed and used by the U.S. Navy. All three carriers are conventionally powered.
In March, when China's People's Liberation Army Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi approved the construction of the fourth aircraft carrier, sea trials in Fujian province had not yet begun. When asked if nuclear power generation would be introduced, he said, “It will be announced soon,” but so far no announcement has been made.
There is speculation that China may start building two new aircraft carriers at once. One is a Type 003 like the Fujian one, and the other is a Type 004 equipped with nuclear power. This is something China has never attempted before, but its shipyards have the ability to do it.
Matthew Hunaiolu, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' China Power Project, said he doubts China's next aircraft carrier will be nuclear-powered. Instead, he said he expected the PLA Navy's fourth aircraft carrier to focus on optimizing the Fujian carrier's existing design through “incremental improvements.”
Nick Childs, a senior naval and maritime security fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said China “has taken an incremental approach to carrier development, with many ambitions that evolve over time.”
“So far, their deployment has been relatively cautious, remaining primarily within shore support, but projecting influence and some degree of coercion within nearshore waters.”
But ultimately, “larger airlines similar to U.S. airlines will have more options for projecting power,” Childs said.
It will take several years to build and operate an aircraft carrier, but developing nuclear propulsion for the next generation of warships will eventually allow more power to operate advanced systems such as electromagnetic launchers, radar, and new technology weapons. This will give China more power, Childs said.
“Nuclear power not only eliminates the need for regular refueling of ships and greatly increases their range, but also eliminates the need for ships to carry fuel oil and has space for aircraft fuel and weapons. It means you can extend your range.'' Childs said.
“Much will depend on the overall size of the next aircraft carrier, but the addition of nuclear power would be an important step in China's carrier development, with ships comparable to those of the U.S. Navy.”
Chao, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier would give the Chinese military “greater flexibility to operate around strategic hotspots, particularly along the First Island Chain, where most of China's disputed territory is located. It provides staying power.” Mr. Zhao.
The first island chain includes the self-governing island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own and has vowed to annex by force if necessary.
Under domestic law, the United States is obligated to supply Taiwan with enough weapons to thwart an invasion, and could provide support from bases in the Pacific in the event of an invasion or blockade. In the South China Sea, tensions are also rising between China and neighboring countries over territorial disputes and maritime interests.
“These aircraft carriers could also extend Chinese operations deeper into the Western Pacific, allowing the US military to 'intervene' in regional issues that China sees as best resolved by regional countries alone. may further challenge the capabilities of
US-China conflict
Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered defense officials to build a “first-class” navy and become a maritime power as part of the country's rejuvenation blueprint.
The latest defense white paper, dated 2019, said the Chinese Navy is adapting to strategic requirements by “accelerating the mission transition from near sea defense to far sea protection missions.”
The People's Liberation Army Navy is already the world's largest navy, with more than 370 ships and submarines. The country also boasts strong shipbuilding capabilities, with Chinese shipyards building hundreds of ships each year, while the United States builds fewer than five, according to a U.S. Congressional report late last year. It is said that
However, the Chinese Navy lags behind the US Navy in many respects. Among other advantages, the United States currently has 11 aircraft carriers, all nuclear-powered, and can maintain multiple strike groups deployed around the world at any given time, including the Indo-Pacific.
But the Pentagon is increasingly concerned about China's rapid modernization of its fleet, including the design and construction of new aircraft carriers.
This is consistent with China's “increasing emphasis on the maritime domain and the growing requirement that its navy operate farther from mainland China,” the Pentagon said in its latest report to Congress on China's military. I mentioned it in the book.
And China's “increasing carrier strength will allow deployed task groups to extend their air defense range beyond that of land defense, allowing them to operate farther from China's coasts,” the report said.
