Sweden’s Left-Wing Coalition Appears to Have Won Election, Influenced by Migration

The coalition of left-wing parties in Sweden seems to have triumphed over the ruling conservative bloc, with a victory that some attribute to the effects of mass migration.

Swedish public broadcaster SVT reported that the opposition parties are 99.9 percent likely to have secured victory in the general election, with just 50 districts remaining to report their votes. While the counting of early votes has caused fluctuations in results, it now appears statistically inevitable that Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s Tidö government has been defeated.

According to SVT’s analysis, the left-wing opposition, spearheaded by the Social Democrats (S), is projected to win 176 seats in the Riksdag, compared to 173 for Kristersson’s Moderate Party (M) and the conservative bloc.

Even though the margin of victory is slim, which could complicate governance—especially as not all parties, like the Green Party (MP), Left Party (V), and Centre Party (C), are guaranteed to reach an agreement—many observers have noted that the left-wing coalition’s success likely hinged on the influence of migrant voters.

Exit poll data indicates that the potential governing parties, particularly the Social Democrats and the radical Left Party, saw significant support from migrants. Among non-European migrant voters, the Social Democrats garnered 37 percent, while the Left Party attracted 21 percent. In contrast, the Moderates only received 13 percent, and the Sweden Democrats (SD), who oppose mass migration, achieved just 10 percent.

For European migrants in Sweden, the two leading left-wing parties also had an edge: about 29 percent supported the Social Democrats, and 10 percent backed the Left Party. Altogether, that’s nearly 40 percent, compared to 19 percent for the Moderates and 14 percent for the Sweden Democrats.

Interestingly, if the vote had solely included native Swedes, the right-wing bloc would have had the upper hand, with the Moderates capturing 20 percent and the Sweden Democrats 18 percent. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats would still have achieved 27 percent, but the Left Party would have seen a sharp decline, falling to just 7 percent.

If we look at a broader perspective, combining the votes for all factions, the four right-wing parties would have collectively won 51 percent compared to 48 percent for the left-wing parties if the election had only involved individuals of Swedish descent.

In a somewhat surprising twist, estimates from SVT suggest that the tightly contested victory for the left may have been different without the 200,000 migrants who were granted citizenship during Kristersson’s conservative administration. While the government did manage to cut immigration rates and briefly see net negative migration numbers, it still granted citizenship to over 200,000 individuals within that time frame.

Although there isn’t precise exit poll data for new citizens under Kristersson, SVT speculates that if they had voted similarly to other migrant groups, it might have been enough to swing the election in favor of the left-wing parties.

Particularly notable is Malmö, known for its multicultural demographic. In a preliminary vote count, the Rosengård Centrum area—which has a significant migrant population—saw 95.2 percent of votes going to either the Social Democrats or the Left Party. Moderate Party MP Fredrik Kärrholm humorously commented that such results could possibly “make Saddam Hussein jealous.”

If the left-wing coalition manages to establish a government in the coming weeks, they are expected to reverse many of the immigration policies enacted by Kristersson, which could complicate any future endeavors for conservative parties seeking power.