A significant nor’easter is poised to hit the Carolinas just days after a massive winter storm traversed 2,300 miles across the United States, bringing dangerous ice and heavy snow to various regions.
Recovery efforts are ongoing in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast following substantial snowfall over the weekend.
As of now, at least 65 fatalities have been reported across 16 states.
The FOX Prediction Center warns that a strong nor’easter could take shape off the East Coast this weekend, potentially evolving into a bomb cyclone.
This intense winter storm is almost guaranteed to affect the Carolinas and Virginia, though the exact path remains uncertain.
Winter storm warnings are already in effect for all of North Carolina, large portions of South Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia.
In anticipation of the impending snowstorm, North Carolina Governor Josh Stein has declared a state of emergency.
Stein noted that the state emergency response team has been mobilized to support affected communities.
“We are once again facing winter weather in North Carolina, and with the potential for snow, it’s crucial that everyone stays vigilant and takes precautions,” he stated.
Cause of the Storm
A significant reservoir of cold air linked to the polar vortex is expected to move south from Canada, impacting the Great Lakes and eventually reaching the Southeast.
This event will funnel energy through the Southeast and off the East Coast as the weekend unfolds.
This could lead to a chilling effect in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
A rapidly forming low-pressure system will develop just off the southeast coast, leveraging the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
As this low pressure strengthens from Saturday into Sunday, it will draw moisture northward while trapping colder air inland, leading to delayed intensifying winter weather effects.
Rapid Intensification
A key feature of this storm is its potential for quick intensification, sometimes referred to as “explosion.”
This phenomenon occurs when a storm’s central pressure drops by at least 24 millibars within a 24-hour timeframe. Current forecasts indicate that the pressure could fall from approximately 1,005 millibars to nearly 967 millibars between late Saturday and midday Sunday.
This rapid strengthening could create a stark pressure gradient, resulting in strong winds and hazardous conditions along the immediate coastline, particularly across the Outer Banks.
Impact on the Carolinas and Virginia
Snow is forecasted to begin falling Friday evening.
The initial stages of the system will develop further west, affecting areas like the Tennessee Valley and Appalachian Mountains. Overall impacts on Friday should be minimal, but light snow may occur in cities such as Nashville and parts of Virginia.
This phase seems more like a prelude to the main event.
By Saturday morning, however, the situation will evolve quickly, with the coastal low starting to develop and spreading snow into the higher elevations of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and northern Georgia.
Saturday is likely to feature significant snowfall across the region.
As Saturday progresses, the coastal low will intensify, drawing colder air southward and increasing moisture levels. Heavier snowfall is anticipated, especially in urban centers like Richmond, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Columbia in South Carolina.
Based on projected snowfall rates, a conservative estimate suggests 8 to 12 inches could accumulate in North Carolina, though that might be an understatement.
If conditions align perfectly, this storm could rank among the top five snow events for cities like Raleigh.
A broader forecast suggests widespread accumulations of 5 to 8 inches across southern Virginia, most of North Carolina, and central South Carolina.
Though snowfall is certainly the primary concern, severe impacts are also expected along the coast.
There are rising fears that the combination of onshore winds gusting between 60 to 70 mph, high waves, and significant coastal erosion might lead to conditions reminiscent of those seen during recent hurricane seasons, including potential housing loss.
Weather models project the storm will track very close to the coastline, which could generate hurricane-force wind gusts in some coastal locations.
Snow is possible in places like Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and the Outer Banks.
If heavy snowfall coincides with peak wind speeds, blizzard-like conditions could be a possibility, especially along the North Carolina coast. Snow totals may diminish closer to the shoreline, yet 3 to 5 inches could still be feasible by Sunday morning.
Snow Moon Connection
This storm coincides with the full moon, often referred to as the snow moon, adding to its potential severity.
Strong winds are predicted to align with high tide around 7 to 8 a.m. ET on Sunday, heightening the risk of coastal flooding due to rising waters from storm surges.
Projected increases could range between 3 to 4 feet along vulnerable parts of the coastline.
Combined with the prospects for snow and whiteout conditions, Sunday could present very alarming and potentially severe scenarios along the coast.
Northeast Influence
Further north, the FOX Prediction Center is monitoring potential impacts as the storm approaches the Northeast on Sunday.
While most models agree the storm is nearby, there’s significant disagreement regarding its specific path.
Currently, it seems unlikely that a total miss will occur, though some effects are still anticipated.
This system has generated interest as several weather models indicate high-impact snowstorms could follow closely on the heels of the massive cross-country storm.
Depending on the scenario, moderate to heavy snowfall is likely, particularly from eastern Massachusetts to Maine. However, there’s also a chance that most snow remains offshore with limited accumulation inland.
Areas expected to face significant impacts include all of southeastern Massachusetts, specifically Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket Island.
Even if the storm tracks slightly offshore, regions can still face snow, high winds, and perilous ocean conditions.
Snow isn’t the only concern for Massachusetts and Rhode Island as the storm approaches the coast.
If the system strengthens, it could lead to powerful winds both on the coast and at sea. Gusts could top 90 mph in the Cape and Islands, with even stronger variations possible.
If such winds coincide with high tide, coastal flooding and erosion could be significant concerns.
Confidence in forecasts wanes significantly further west, underscoring how sensitive predictions are to small shifts.
Cities along Interstate 95 stand on the western edge of potential impacts. In places like New York City, a mere shift of 50 to 160 miles in the storm’s path might mean the difference between light and more severe impacts.
Though no major snowstorms are predicted along I-95 from Washington, D.C. to New York City, periods of high winds and light snow remain a possibility.
