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Election analyst Nate Silver says Donald Trump now has a record-high chance of winning the 2024 election.
Nate Silver also predicts that Donald Trump will win all battleground states.
According to Silver, Trump has a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College.
That was a five-point change since Thursday.
The Washington Examiner reported:
Election analyst Nate Silver has predicted that former President Donald Trump has the best chance ever of beating Vice President Kamala Harris.
The increase is also the result of a New York Times/Siena poll conducted Sunday, which Silver calls one of the most highly regarded pollsters. Silver's latest assessment gives Trump a 63.8% chance of winning, compared with Harris' 36% chance. Trump is also likely to win every battleground state.
Silver currently projects Trump's chances of winning in Pennsylvania at 64%, Michigan at 54%, Wisconsin at 53%, Arizona at 77%, North Carolina at 75%, Georgia at 68% and Nevada at 61%.
The new odds represent a nearly five-point increase from Thursday's projection that Trump had a 58.2% chance of winning, up from 52.4% a week earlier. The projections signal a further decline in Harris' honeymoon support since President Joe Biden dropped out in July.
In a Substack post, Silver explained that the new poll is bad news for Harris because polls have large sample sizes and are more reliable. He said the poll “supports our model's view that there has been some shift in momentum in the race.”
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