Qaani’s Visit to Iraq: A Sign of Iranian Influence Amid Political Turmoil

Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, who leads the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), made an appearance in Iraq on Saturday to engage with Shiite militias supportive of Tehran. This visit comes at a critical time as Iraq grapples with a power struggle over its prime ministerial position.

Interestingly, Qaani had been notably absent during the U.S.-Israel tensions with Iran. In fact, he seemed to vanish entirely back in March, sparking rumors about his possible death in an airstrike. Then, in early April, his forces were reported to have dealt a “regrettable lesson to the enemies of humanity.”

His predecessor, General Qasem Soleimani, was killed in a U.S. airstrike in January 2020 near Baghdad’s airport. Soleimani was in Iraq to coordinate attacks against U.S. forces with Shiite militias, many of whom have since become key figures in the Iraqi military under the banner of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Following Soleimani’s death, Iranian-backed groups in Iraq began launching sporadic attacks against American military bases, rebranding themselves as the Islamic Resistance Movement of Iraq (IRI).

During the escalated conflict in March, IRI notably conducted drone strikes aimed at U.S. targets in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, highlighting their growing aggressiveness.

Kataib Hezbollah (KH), the largest of Iraq’s Shiite militias, expressed intentions to engage the U.S. in a prolonged conflict, seeking to eliminate American influence entirely from Iraq. The group’s founder, Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, was also killed in the airstrike that took Soleimani’s life.

According to reports, Qaani’s trip to Baghdad focused heavily on political negotiations with Tehran-aligned militias and other political leaders. Iraq remains in a precarious position, struggling to appoint a new prime minister, and the clout of Shiite militias enables Iran to exert significant influence over the candidate selection.

His presence in Baghdad is noteworthy, especially since he has stayed out of the public eye amid ongoing wartime operations. His visit signals Iran’s direct involvement in shaping Iraq’s governmental landscape, as he attempts to rally Shiite factions to present a united front.

In a bold statement, Qaani proclaimed that Iraq should be free from “war criminals,” emphasizing that the choice of prime minister ultimately rests with the Iraqi populace, despite his evident role in influencing the process.

Discussions with Iraqi Shiite politicians emphasized unifying Iraqi Shiites under Iranian guidance to overcome internal divisions and collaboratively elect a new prime minister. However, the prime minister’s position has remained vacant after months of political instability.

This month, Iraq conducted a presidential election, resulting in Nizar Amidi of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party winning—a close first vote but a decisive second. Under Iraqi law, the president serves for just 15 days, after which the largest parliamentary group collaborates to select a prime minister, a process often mired in complications.

As it stands, Iraq’s internal dissension leaves Amidi lacking the political strength needed to form an effective government. Like Lebanon, Iraq faces a complex sectarian arrangement where power is divided among different factions—presidents are usually Kurdish, parliamentary speakers Sunni, and prime ministers Shiite. Currently, the Shiite Coordination Framework, the largest political bloc, has yet to agree on a prime ministerial candidate.

The interim Prime Minister, Shi’ite Mohammad al-Sudani, possesses sufficient backing, but many within the Shiite Coordination Framework are leaning toward former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, who maintains a pro-Iran stance. The U.S. has expressed strong opposition to Maliki, which serves as a backdrop for Qaani’s recent visit, where he criticized “war criminals.”

President Donald Trump even referred to Maliki as a “very bad choice” back when he held office, citing the chaos and poverty during his previous term. Maliki reportedly threatened to cut off U.S. assistance if reinstated.

Reports indicate that Qaani’s visit was prompted by a request from Sudani, aimed at discussing a coordinated Shiite approach while avoiding the contentious candidacy of Maliki or his ally Bassem al-Badri. Badri enjoys popularity among certain Shiite leaders for not being a party head himself. Prior to this visit, Qaani had seemingly gathered enough support for a potential appointment.

Interestingly, this visit coincided with the presence of U.S. Special Envoy Tom Barrack in Baghdad, reflecting Iraq’s tense political dynamics amid simultaneous international interests.

Just before Qaani’s trip, the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against seven Iraqi militia leaders, including the KH commander, signaling a clear stance against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

Media sources reported that al-Maliki was notably displeased with the suggestion of withdrawing Badri as a compromise option. Meanwhile, Sudani is maneuvering to hold onto the premiership in a way that balances Iranian interests without alienating the United States. The U.S. has publicly rejected Maliki as a candidate, leaving uncertainty about Barrack’s intentions during his time in Baghdad.