U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins discussed on Morning with Malia how the immigration policies and tariffs of President Donald Trump are affecting American farmers.
Currently, soybean producers are facing significant challenges in the form of a trade dispute with China. They are losing access to the largest soybean market globally, and this could have serious implications for U.S. farmers.
China has halted purchases of American soybeans, which began in the spring as a response to the Trump administration’s tariffs. This was a strategy to strengthen China’s position in trade negotiations by sourcing soybeans from countries like Brazil and Argentina instead. Over the past five years, China has accounted for about 61% of the world’s soybean imports, as reported by the American Soybean Association (ASA).
Historically, the U.S. has been a key supplier, with American soybean farmers exporting roughly 28% of their crops to China before the trade war erupted in 2018. However, that number plummeted to 11% in the 2018-19 crop year, rebounded to 31% during the pandemic, and is expected to fall to 22% for the 2023-24 season.
Brad Arnold, a soybean farmer from southwest Missouri, expressed the weight of these changes, saying, “We rely on trade with other countries, especially China, to buy soybeans.” He emphasized the significant impact that China’s decision to stop purchasing U.S. soybeans has had on his business.
President Trump maintains that these tariffs are necessary, describing the trade imbalance as a “king of a mess.”
Arnold noted that while there are domestic uses for soybeans, like renewable diesel and biodiesel, these represent a small fraction of the market right now. “To really make a difference, we need customers like China. It’s not just possible to find replacements overnight.”
He also mentioned that farmers would prefer to operate in the marketplace rather than rely on government bailouts. “We’re making significant long-term investments,” he said. “You can’t just walk away from farming one day to do something else.”
Arnold highlighted that, ideally, the ongoing trade disputes should be resolved so farmers can compete fairly. “It feels like we’re in a political situation,” he remarked. “Trump is trying to hold China accountable, which I think is good, but we need to remember that farmers are being hurt by these tactics.”
Scott Gelt, Chief Economist at ASA, discussed the potential for farmers to seek trade aid, especially as the harvest season approaches. He mentioned that while older farmers with fully owned land and equipment may fare better, younger farmers who rent land and have less established records might face more significant risks.
Gelt also pointed out that having a stable trading partner can be beneficial for the long term. Despite trade aid providing a stopgap solution, the ongoing absence from the market sends a message that could push more business toward South America.
So, as Brazil continues to increase its soybean production, American farmers may find it increasingly difficult to compete if trade disputes persist. Gelt warned, “The lack of a trade deal could have very long-term consequences.”
