Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)’s decision to withdraw has underscored the challenges surrounding the nomination for the US ambassador to the United Nations amidst the House GOP’s slim majority, raising concerns about future special elections following President Trump’s Cabinet selection.
Trump expressed worries about both issues in a post on social media that revealed Stefanik was no longer his preferred choice for the UN position.
“As we progress with America’s first agenda, it’s crucial to retain all Republican seats in Congress,” Trump stated.
As it stands, the House has 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, along with four vacant seats. This configuration allows Republicans to afford the loss of only two votes on any party line vote, assuming full attendance.
Trump and Congressional Republicans face a significant challenge as they strive to develop and promote an ambitious legislative agenda focused on tax reductions, energy objectives, spending cuts, and higher debt ceilings through “one big beautiful bill” that could potentially utilize a special procedure that minimizes the need for Democratic support.
House GOP leaders have cautioned about the difficult arithmetic and how Trump’s selections for his administration would complicate matters immediately following his election in November.
Trump realized the challenges in keeping the narrow House GOP majority cohesive when the Chamber of Commerce voted to endorse the framework for his legislative priorities last month.
Republicans could afford to lose one vote, and the president reached out to one of the holdouts remaining, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.).
The Republicans gained a slight advantage with the unexpected passing of two House Democrats – Rep. Sylvester Turner (Texas) and Raul Grijalva (Arizona) – which provided the GOP a two-vote margin currently. The special election for Grijalva’s seat is scheduled for September 23rd. Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) has only authorized dates for special elections, with Republican governors lacking incentive to hasten the special election for Turner’s seat.
The 6th District became vacant after Mike Waltz’s special election in Florida on Tuesday, resulting from two previous lawmakers being elected to his administration. The 1st District became vacant after Trump withdrew following Attorney General Trump’s selection.
If Republicans manage to win both seats, the count will be 220 Republicans to 213 Democrats. This would allow Republicans to lose three GOP votes on any party line measure until one of the Democratic-leaning vacant seats is filled. In the absence of Stefanik, this could revert to a situation where only two votes are tolerable.
However, Republicans are apprehensive about one particular race in Florida.
Both Florida districts are regarded as secure for GOP candidates, with both Waltz and Gaetz winning by over 30 points in 2024. Nonetheless, in District 6, Democratic candidate Josh Weil has raised a remarkable $9.7 million.
Furthermore, a recent internal poll conducted by Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio indicated that Weil was leading, according to sources acquainted with the results.
The seats previously occupied by Stefanik are also viewed as secure. She captured her seat in 2024 with a 24-point margin; Grayhouse’s March survey revealed that Republicans maintained a 17-point advantage over the Democratic candidate in the anticipated special election, as reported by the New York Politico Playbook on Thursday.
Despite this, Republicans expressed their unease that New York Democrats might manipulate the special election schedule established by state law, delaying the elections and leaving seats vacant longer than expected.
“Today marked a significant culmination that reflects the corruption in New York. [Gov.] Kathy Hochul [D] and the special elections have impacted the House margins,” Stefanik remarked to Fox News on Thursday night.
Even without delays on the special election, the legislative schedule in Stefanik’s absence remains challenging.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has outlined an ambitious timeline for pushing Trump’s legislative agenda, aiming for targets around Easter and anniversary dates. Conversely, Republican senators view the August recess as a more attainable deadline.
The impending deadline concerning debt limits also plays a crucial role. House Republicans have incorporated an increase in debt ceilings within the “One Big Beautiful Bill” budget resolution framework, as Trump desires Republicans to elevate federal borrowing limits without needing Democratic support to avoid giving minority parties negotiating leverage.
The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that the Treasury is expected to exhaust “extraordinary measures” by August or September. This situation necessitates congressional action to raise the national borrowing limit to avert defaults, although it noted that deadlines might vary based on federal revenue and spending trends.
Beyond vacancies, unexpected absences could alter the calculations impacting the GOP leadership’s standing.
For instance, Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) announced her pregnancy this week. If the House fails to pass a contentious measure allowing new parents to vote on behalf of their infants (an issue that may escalate next week), she could miss sessions due to her child’s birth.
Cammack humorously reassured Johnson during her pregnancy reveal at a White House event: “Speaker, don’t fret. The numbers are sufficient. I’m scheduled for August.” She also addressed concerns regarding her presence on social platform X: “My pregnancy is a gift – it doesn’t change anything. … Regardless of my condition, I’m capable of fulfilling the duties my constituents elected me to perform.”
Democrats have welcomed Stefanik’s withdrawal from the nomination as indicative of a fissure within the GOP, where voters are distancing themselves from Trump and his party.
“[Trump] House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) stated in a press release. “The Republican platform has become increasingly unpopular, creating fear among Republicans. What has happened to their so-called goals?”
