Swift's endorsement of Harris came to light just an hour after the first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump concluded. On Instagram.
Pop stars have only recently Entered politics. Her activism sometimes seems less partisan. For example, her Instagram posts: 30,000 They urge people to register to vote and at times have an overtly liberal bent.
For example, she endorsed two Tennessee Democratic candidates in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2020. Some Democratic-leaning Swifties say she He will not attend this year's Democratic National Convention.Especially with her public statements. Support for liberal politics and Right to Abortion And her famous Dislike for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
but, Harris outranks Trump Swift's endorsement seemed as inevitable as hers on the national debate stage, weeks after Biden failed to do the same. TIME Magazine Person of the Year 2023 award.
After his death, commentators heralded Swift's endorsement as a seminal moment. Predict The Swiftie legions will dig deep into politics, register, and vote for Harris.
But historically, most of the candidates Swift has supported have I couldn't win.So it remains to be seen whether Swift's partisan pitch will have any further effect: Will Taylor Swift's Instagram post serve as a powerful reminder of Harris' presidency, or will this be the end of another rough summer of Swift's failed pitches?
To answer these questions, We conducted a national survey of over 1,000 people. The experiment took place between August 19 and 27, just weeks before Swift endorsed Harris.
In our experiment, we asked respondents several relevant questions about their love for Swift, such as how often they listen to her music and whether they feel connected to her, and then combined those answers to distinguish between Swift fans and non-Swift fans. All respondents, fans and non-fans alike, were shown a photo of Taylor Swift asking them to vote.
About 500 people saw an image of Swift urging people to vote independent in the next election, while the remaining 500 were shown the same image of Swift, but this time she urged attendees to vote Democrat.
Analysis of the data revealed that Swift's endorsement had the greatest impact on Swift supporters who were undecided, but not in the way that might have been expected.
When shown a photo of Swift encouraging people to vote, they said they were more likely to go to the polls — about 0.71 on a scale of 0 to 1, with 0 meaning no interest and 1 meaning they would definitely vote. This result is consistent with Swift's actual efforts to mobilize voters to register. But when undecided Swifties saw a photo of Swift encouraging them to vote Democrat, their willingness to vote actually increased. rejectionIt dropped to 0.40.
That means campaigns need to mobilize their supporters in close elections, and Swift's endorsement of Harris could persuade some undecided voters to stay home from voting.
Notably, only Swifties responded significantly to our experiment, and the effect varied depending on their own political leanings.
Not surprisingly, “pro-Trump” Swift fans shrugged off Swift's partisan support, just as it's hard for celebrities to convince audiences to change their minds on divisive issues. Abortion, the death penalty, gun control, etc. It's reasonable to assume that voters who have already decided to vote for Trump are unlikely to change their minds after Swift's encouragement.
Similarly, Swifties who planned to vote for Harris have already made their decision: Our respondents were no more enthusiastic about the election, no more interested in voting or learning about Democrats, no more likely to go to the polls, and no more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate.
Consider Swifties for Kamalais a group that began organizing efforts in July, long before Swift announced her intentions, and Swift's endorsement certainly doesn't make the group any less likely to vote or participate at its current levels.
Viewed in a broader context, these findings are not entirely surprising: Most studies examining the relationship between politics and entertainment have come to mixed conclusions about the impact of celebrities on political attitudes.
On the one hand, research has found that celebrity messages are important in certain situations — celebrities can appeal to a wider audience on a particular issue more quickly than most politicians can muster — but on the other hand, most Americans claim they don't turn to celebrities for political information.
Also, people generally have a bad feeling about mixing politics, a sordid and sometimes uncomfortable topic, with entertainment, which is meant to be fun and entertaining.
Swift has broken album and concert records, inspired cat lovers and brought countless new fans to Arrowhead Stadium, but as Swift herself said, “haters are gonna hate.”
Partisanship Dislike of independents' political activism It's probably too hard for them to just “shake it off.”
Alison Shortle is an associate professor of political science at the University of Oklahoma. Brooklyn Walker is a lecturer in political science at Hutchinson Community College. Mark Harvey is an associate professor and graduate program director at Saint Mary's University.
