California’s summer travel plans are facing heightened uncertainty due to a global oil crisis and decreasing jet fuel reserves, which may disrupt flights, hike prices, and complicate travel for millions.
As hospitality expert Mike Dugnan noted, “People don’t know exactly how this is going to escalate.” He expressed concern about a “huge black cloud” looming over the travel scene related to oil shortages, especially ahead of the World Cup.
Jet fuel supplies in California have hit their lowest levels in over two years, a situation that has many travelers anxious. A spokesperson from the California Energy Commission acknowledged that while current production and inventory levels are historically within range, supply remains tight without structural deficits yet visible.
Since the mid-1980s, oil production in California has been on a steady decline. Once peaking at around 424 million barrels annually, it has now fallen to approximately 285,000 barrels per day. Projections indicate that by 2025, over 61% of the state’s crude oil will need to be sourced from abroad. The closing of refineries by Phillips 66 and Valero, which reduced California’s gasoline production capacity by about 17% to 20%, compounds the problem.
Oil analysts like Patrick de Haan pointed out that the timing couldn’t be worse for California, especially as Asian countries grapple with their oil supplies. Typically, jet fuel is the first product felt during production declines, meaning that cuts in refining capacity hit hardest at airborne fuel resources.
Following rising jet fuel prices, airlines have started to trim flight schedules. For instance, Air Canada has announced the suspension of all flights from Toronto and Montreal to New York from June 1 to October 25. Other airlines have also followed suit, with Lufthansa reportedly canceling around 20,000 summer flights to manage fuel usage, and North Atlantic Airlines has completely removed its routes to Los Angeles for the summer.
Domestically, Delta has cut at least eight regional routes due to jet fuel pricing at LAX soaring to nearly $15 per gallon, leaving numerous non-hub flights economically unfeasible. Some cuts are already happening in California’s smaller airports, raising concerns about what could come next.
De Haan also remarked, “Gasoline availability on the West Coast is not something to worry about yet, but it’s jet fuel.” He hinted that more cancellations could happen as airlines look to conserve fuel.
The approaching summer travel season is particularly crucial, as Los Angeles expects a surge of tourists ahead of the 2026 World Cup starting in June. With Los Angeles International Airport being one of the busiest globally, disruptions in flight availability or pricing could have significant repercussions for tourism and related sectors.
Additionally, fuel shortages might have wider economic impacts beyond aviation. Diesel, vital for trucking and transportation, usually faces shortages second to jet fuel. Such a scenario might lead to increased prices for goods and services across the region. Currently, gas prices hover around $6—a far cry from the national average—and diesel is approaching $7.50, a notable rise from last year.
The underlying issues are of a longer-term nature, as California’s oil production has been declining for decades amid regulatory challenges and rising operational costs, forcing reliance on imports to meet energy demands. Energy experts have pointed to an absence of new facilities in the past three decades and closure of existing ones as contributing factors.
While there’s an ongoing proposal for a pipeline linking California more directly to domestic fuel supplies, such solutions will take years to unfold, leaving the state vulnerable in the meantime.
The current geopolitical landscape, notably the conflict in the Middle East, has led to significant disruptions in global oil supplies, causing market volatility. As policymakers make attempts to ease some logistical constraints by increasing fuel shipments, experts warn that these measures may not be enough if global supply issues continue.
If demand rises and oil supply remains limited, California might be under sustained pressure throughout the summer and possibly longer. This looming uncertainty threatens to lead to higher ticket prices, fewer flight options, and last-minute disruptions for travelers. As summer approaches, the chance to mitigate significant issues grows slimmer.
According to United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, “Fuel prices are more susceptible to supply disruptions on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country.” He stresses that it’s not merely the current shortage that raises concerns but how swiftly the situation could escalate if supply chains tighten further.
As one analyst indicated, without any substantial resolutions soon, the upcoming summer could present real challenges for the jet fuel situation in California. “It’s not going to be good for California’s economy,” De Haan warned.
