Discussion on Supergirl’s Poor Box Office Performance

Fox News hosts recently talked about the anticipated $200 million loss for the new Supergirl movie, which Variety described as “super scary.” Panelists, including Jesse Watters and Greg Gutfeld, touched on actress Millie Alcock’s claim about her character’s bisexuality, suggesting it connects to the “woke” trends in Hollywood and the film’s disappointing box office results.

Hollywood’s output might be struggling these days, but one thing seems certain: bad movies are still being produced, turning off many potential viewers. This trend has led to a series of high-profile financial flops recently, covering a spectrum from Marvel projects to titles like The Bride.

Now, Supergirl can join that list. Back in late May, pre-release estimates hinted at a $70 million opening weekend in the U.S. However, given the film’s production cost was around $175 million, plus marketing expenses that could inflate the budget further, a $65 million to $70 million opening would still be quite disappointing.

Warner Bros. had even orchestrated a large-scale promotional strategy, working with major brands like Cold Stone, and even setting up a Supergirl exhibit at a baseball game to pull audiences in.

It appears the budget might have even been underestimated. Late reports indicate that the production cost could have reached about $186 million. Although initial expectations had “cooled,” it was still believed the film could rake in over $80 million globally and around $50 million domestically during its first weekend.

But the actual numbers from the weekend turned out to be far worse than anticipated. The hopes for Supergirl, which were once set on reaching $70 million in the U.S., instead saw just $38 million, falling nearly halfway short of expectations.

Globally, it fared even worse. Despite a robust worldwide launch alongside a heavy marketing effort, the film only managed to make $68 million in total, with just $30 million from international markets. Predictions moments earlier had anticipated a much better performance, with numbers aiming at $80 million overseas and $50 million domestically.

It’s hard to overstate how disastrous this outcome is.

To break even, given the split between studio and theatrical revenue, Supergirl likely needed to gross between $450 million and $500 million globally. If we take a conservative approach, estimating a similar revenue split as James Gunn’s Superman—which earned around 57% of its box office from domestic ticket sales—Supergirl would need around $270 million from the U.S. alone to even think about recovering its costs. Especially considering that around 40-45% of box office earnings typically happen during the opening weekend, Supergirl might struggle to pull in even $100 million at the box office during its debut.

If we apply the 40% rule similarly worldwide, the film’s total box office might hit around $170 million. This could mean significant losses for Warner Bros. and DC Studios, costing them hundreds of millions. Quite frankly, they have to take some responsibility for this mess.

Millie Alcock, who plays the lead, was tasked with managing the film’s publicity before its release. That meant avoiding controversy or divisive comments that could alienate potential viewers. Unfortunately, she didn’t quite succeed.

In an earlier interview, she expressed the feeling that merely being a woman in such a role could attract critique. When backlash followed her rather perplexing comments, she reaffirmed her stance, suggesting people were proving her point when they got upset.

Before the film’s launch, she mentioned that her character might have a fluid sexuality, saying, “I think what makes this movie beautiful is that it’s not centered around men, it’s not centered around love at all.” But, she added, “I really don’t know.” It kind of serves as a how-not-to guide for promotion.

Yet, it’s not entirely on Alcock’s shoulders. Various factors contributed to Supergirl’s disappointing reception. The screenwriter, Ana Noguiera, had never penned a feature film before this project; her last credit was a short film from 2018. Questions arise about how she was put in that position.

The film faced harsh criticism, and even audiences who typically support films perceived as marginalized found it lacking, with a troubling B-CinemaScore. The trailer did not impress either. Gunn, who leads DC Studios, mentioned wanting to create a female-centered superhero but made comments that may have confused audiences instead of attracting them.

This situation exemplifies why Hollywood continues to struggle with ticket sales. If they fail to recognize what their audience desires, and hire less-than-qualified individuals for significant roles, they repeatedly miss the mark. There seems to be an ongoing trend of actors and actresses who, perhaps too absorbed in their own views, neglect the fact they’re in a service industry.

Compare this scenario with a title like Project Hail Mary, which aimed to sidestep political commentary to create an engaging movie experience, resulting in a successful gross of around $685 million globally.

In stark contrast, Supergirl might lose between $130 million to $200 million, depending on various factors. This pattern reveals that Hollywood’s priorities often lead to failure, yet they continue to deflect blame onto others instead of reconsidering their approach. It raises questions—what will it take for change?