Arizona was one of the closest states in 2020 and may be the poster child for a modern purple state, yet recent trends and demographic analysis suggest the state is leaning heavily Republican.
The Grand Canyon State, home of conservative icon Sen. Barry Goldwater, was once a staunch Republican supporter.
The party has supported just one Democrat in presidential elections from 1952 to 2016 and has typically sent two deeply conservative Republicans to the U.S. Senate.
But that has changed in the Trump era: Democrats have won the last three Senate elections and narrowly won the governorship in 2022.
The narrow margin of 10,457 votes won by President Biden in the 2020 presidential election is just the best-known example of a now-evident trend.
As in other parts of the country, college-educated white voters are driving this partisan shift.
year 2012In Arizona, 63% of college-educated voters voted for Mitt Romney, while graduate-educated voters supported Barack Obama by a slim 54-42 margin.
However, in 2020, Trump received just 50% approval among voters with four-year college degrees and lost miserably 60-40 among voters with graduate degrees.
Arizona has a large and growing Latino population, and in 2016, the state cast 15% of its voters, helping Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 30 points.
Biden trailed among Hispanics by 24 points, but they accounted for 19% of the state’s votes.
Combined with two other non-white ethnic groups, Native Americans and blacks, Biden and the Democrats’ newfound strength among college-educated whites is enough to give them a narrow but steady victory.
Those trends are now reversing, with national polls showing Latinos are leaning more toward the Republican Party.
2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Kali Lake performed worse in much of the state than Trump did two years ago, but did better in heavily Latino counties Santa Cruz and Yuma.
Exit polls also showed Lake losing statewide among Latinos by just 4 points. If she had received as much support as Trump did among whites, she would have won easily.
Voter registration data also points to a shift toward the Republican Party: As of November 2020, registered Democrats made up 32.2% of all eligible voters.
The latest statistics, from April, put their combined total at just 29.4%. Meanwhile, Republicans slightly increased their share of registered voters, from 35.2% to 35.4%.
Since Biden won by just 0.3 percentage points, the partisan balance has shifted 3 points in Republicans’ favor.
That’s why Trump has consistently led Arizona polls: The RealClearPolitics average has him leading Biden by 5.4 points in two-way races and 6.4 percentage points when looking at all candidates.
Biden has never led in an Arizona poll since April 2023.
Those trends should help other Republicans, too. Democrats are targeting two GOP-held House seats, Dave Schweikart’s Scottsdale-based 1st District and Juan Siscomani’s Tucson-based 6th District, both of which went to Biden in 2020.
Both districts are filled with wealthy, college-educated voters, which makes them highly competitive.
But the Democrats’ potential advantage is so small that even a slight shift to the Republicans could protect incumbents.
Since January 2023, Democratic vote shares in both seats have declined, according to voter registration data.
Even Kali Lake could benefit from the Republican winds. Lake is well known for her recent gubernatorial campaign but has little name recognition due to her unfounded claims that the election was stolen.
Nevertheless, her Democratic opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego, holds a slight two-point lead in the RCP polling average.
His lead is compelling, but millions of dollars in television ads touting his progressive voting record could drag his name recognition down to Lake’s level.
If she does, Arizona’s new Republican leanings could propel her to victory.
On election night, all eyes will be on Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and its fast-growing suburbs.
In 2020, the county cast 61% of the state’s votes, far more than the number cast by New York City in New York state.
Combined with suburban Pinal County, the Phoenix metropolitan area dumps about two-thirds of the statewide total.
The combined Democratic vote margin in those two counties was roughly the same as Biden and Gov. Katie Hobbs’ final statewide vote margin.
If Trump and Lake can retake Maricopa or keep the Democratic lead at under 20,000 votes, they would be guaranteed a win.
Early voting begins on Oct. 9, giving Democrats a short window of time to change the state’s course. If polls and registration statistics don’t show progress soon, Arizona could return to its historical role as a Republican-leaning state.
