Syria on the Brink of Collapse, Warns Secretary of State

Syria might be “a few weeks” away from a potential collapse, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who shared these concerns with lawmakers on Tuesday. The interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa is facing significant challenges, and discussions around easing long-standing sanctions have been ongoing since May in hopes of preventing further civil conflicts in the country.

Rubio, who is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, indicated that the current administration emerged victorious against the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group that played a crucial role in toppling former President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. He cautioned that “if Syria is unstable, the entire area could follow suit.” He really emphasized that this interim authority may be just weeks away—not months—from a collapse leading to a full-scale civil war.

He further pointed out that the U.S. cannot halt the relief from sanctions unilaterally and mentioned the need for a more “inclusive” approach from Congress to support long-term stability in the region. The numbers are staggering; as of December 2024, the Syrian civil war had resulted in the deaths of around 620,000 people.

Interestingly, al-Sharaa is a former al-Qaeda member who had been detained by U.S. forces during the Iraq War. He distanced himself from the group in 2017 due to ideological differences, although HTS still maintains many of the core philosophies related to Islam and jihad.

Rubio acknowledged that the Syrian government isn’t perfect but insisted that failing to engage with them might lead to dire consequences that could extend beyond Syria’s borders. He voiced concerns about background checks for officials within the transition authority, suggesting that drawing them into the fold is essential to avert further chaos.

Despite al-Sharaa trying to distance himself from his past affiliations, skepticism about his governance remains, particularly regarding the treatment of minority communities like the Alawites, who were previously loyal to Assad, an Alawite himself. This group has faced threats, with extremist elements targeting them in the past.

Rubio’s remarks underscore a significant gamble with the U.S. opening channels with the new Syrian government, amid many uncertainties regarding its values and intentions. The State Department has not yet responded to requests for comments on this matter.