Tensions are escalating between Israel and Turkey as their differing visions for reconstructing the Gaza Strip clash, combined with increasing strategic disagreements in Syria. This is occurring even as both nations remain part of a US-led diplomatic effort after the recent ceasefire with Hamas.
Israel has firmly stated it will not permit Turkish military forces in Gaza, viewing Ankara as a significant threat. Turkish officials, however, insist they are not planning to deploy troops there, focusing instead on humanitarian aid, rebuilding efforts, and political influence.
Dan Diker, who heads the Jerusalem Center for Security and Diplomacy, described Turkey as not neutral but rather a strategic danger to Israel. He elaborated that allowing Turkish troops into Gaza would likely result in destabilization, potentially undermining initiatives like the one proposed by former President Trump.
During a recent press conference held in Mar-a-Lago, Prime Minister Netanyahu was also present, but Trump seemed to minimize worries about conflict between Israel and Turkey, expressing his close friendship with Erdogan. “Bibi respects him… They are not going to cause any trouble,” Trump noted, leaving Netanyahu smiling without making further comments.
Moreover, Trump called for Hamas to disarm, aligning with Netanyahu’s outlook on Gaza’s future. In his words, “If we don’t disarm, those same countries will go and annihilate Hamas.”
Diker pointed out Erdogan’s long-term aspirations in Syria, where Turkey already has a military presence and has facilitated extremist groups. He added that President Trump is adept at managing the delicate balance of relations by keeping Erdogan dialoguing with allies.
According to Diker, while Netanyahu aims to uphold Trump’s diplomatic framework, he must still prioritize Israel’s security interests. Turkey’s involvement in the region, particularly in Syria, is viewed with increasing concern by Israel.
Sinan Siddi, a senior fellow, noted that Turkish regional cooperation with Israel is perceived as a direct backslide on its ambitions, especially after events like a summit between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, which Turkey regards as a challenge to its extensive maritime claims.
Additionally, Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland may further complicate matters. Diker explained this could provide Israel with strategic leverage in the Red Sea, acting as a counter to Turkey’s influence in that region.
Despite Erdogan’s vocal support for Palestine, analysts suggest there’s a significant gap between Turkey’s aggressive rhetoric and its actual policies. Pragmatically, Turkey’s leadership seems to have recognized the limited domestic support for sending troops to Gaza, though it sees financial opportunity in reconstruction efforts.
Ultimately, tensions are likely to persist as the dynamics in the region continue to evolve, and both leaders try to navigate their priorities amid conflicting interests.
