Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, in charge of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)’s Quds Force, unexpectedly visited Baghdad on Sunday. This trip aimed to engage with Iranian-aligned politicians and militia groups, likely trying to sway Iraq’s emerging government.
Reportedly, Qaani stated on Tuesday that he had set several “red lines” for Iran’s supporters in Iraq, including a directive against yielding to Washington regarding the disarmament of armed factions and avoiding a close alliance with the U.S.
Alongside instructing Iraq’s Shiite leaders, Qaani also met with a prominent Shiite militia, which had been designated a decade prior to represent the beleaguered Iraqi government in the battle against ISIS.
These militia groups, now known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have intermittently gained influence over the Iraqi military. They have even launched attacks against U.S. and coalition forces.
Sources indicate that Qaani warned PMF leaders that agreeing to the U.S. request to relinquish arms could diminish their influence and weaken their role in Iraq’s security framework.
The U.S. has historically been wary of heavily armed Shiite militias for obvious reasons. After the onset of war with Iran, there was a notable surge in Iraqi militias targeting American military sites to exert pressure on Baghdad to disband the PMF.
If Shiite militias continue to pose a threat, U.S. officials have hinted they might cut counterterrorism and security assistance to Iraq. Furthermore, President Trump has threatened to withdraw all support if the pro-Iranian Nuri al-Maliki returns as prime minister.
Non-Shia politicians in Iraq might readily agree to demands for militia disarmament, especially with prospective U.S. military support. Still, the political landscape is sharply divided, and Shiites may resist taking decisive actions against these factions. Qaani’s visit likely stems from Iranian concerns about threats posed by proxies, aimed at reinforcing Shiite positions.
The specter of Maliki regaining power and Iran exerting greater control in Iraq seems to have lessened for the time being. The Shiite political alliance, known as the Coordination Framework (CF), recently broke a protracted deadlock in forming a new government, backing Ali al-Zaidi as their prime ministerial candidate.
Zaidi, a relatively unknown young businessman, has been designated by the Trump administration as a compromise figure, which does not seem to sit well with Iran. They appear to feel unable to block his rise and are attempting to shape his potential governance to safeguard their interests in Iraq.
While Zaidi has shown interest in building stronger ties with the U.S., he’s also keen on maintaining Iran’s favor. However, complications arise from connections between his bank and Iranian-backed militia leaders, which fall under U.S. sanctions since 2018. The Trump administration may choose to overlook this link if he proves to be an effective prime minister.
Clearly, Iran is anxious about this situation. Qaani, who oversees the wing of the IRGC that stirs instability abroad, has made multiple visits to Iraq, repeating similar messages, indicating perhaps a feeling of urgency in his mission.
